Brazil’s political and cultural landscape has been thrust into the global spotlight once again, as the country reckons with the aftermath of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and the reverberations felt across its society, government, and international relations. From heated debates over conservative values and judicial fairness to the resurgence of Brazilian cinema as a form of resistance, the nation’s latest chapter is unfolding with drama, soul-searching, and no shortage of controversy.
On September 24, 2025, Michelle Bolsonaro, former first lady and prominent evangelical figure, openly acknowledged the possibility of running for political office in 2026. Her remarks came at a time when the conservative camp faces a leadership vacuum, owing largely to Jair Bolsonaro’s recent conviction. The Supreme Court of Brazil sentenced the ex-president to 27 years and three months in prison for plotting a coup to prevent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from taking office in January 2023—a decision that has shaken Brazilian politics to its core, according to The Telegraph.
"I will get up like a lioness to defend our conservative values, truth and justice. If, to fulfill God’s will, it is necessary for me to assume the political candidacy, I will be ready to do what he asks for me," Michelle Bolsonaro declared in an interview published on September 24. Her words, echoing the rhetoric of resilience and faith, resonated with many on Brazil’s right, especially as she vowed to care for her husband in the face of what she described as persecution. "All my attention is focused on taking care of my daughters and my husband at this delicate moment, so that this persecution and humiliation against us conservative Brazilians do not destroy my family or the family of so many other unjustly affected by this cowardly persecution," she added.
Yet, the path ahead is anything but straightforward. Michelle Bolsonaro’s name has been floated not only as a potential presidential candidate but also as a vice-presidential pick alongside São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a scenario some Bolsonaro loyalists see as a way to maintain their movement’s momentum. Despite this, Michelle has consistently positioned herself as a candidate for the Senate representing the Federal District, and her allies reaffirmed on September 28 that this remains her primary intention. According to The Telegraph, Jair Bolsonaro himself has expressed reluctance to nominate his wife to head a presidential ticket, citing the grueling nature of such a campaign and her relative inexperience in national debates, especially on complex issues like the economy. Instead, he and his supporters are focused on securing a robust Senate bench to counterbalance the Supreme Court’s influence in the next legislature.
Electoral simulations reveal the challenges ahead for the Bolsonaro family. In hypothetical second-round matchups, Michelle would garner 40% of the vote against President Lula’s 48%. Her stepsons, Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, would fare worse, trailing Lula by double-digit margins. Meanwhile, the possibility of a Tarcísio-Michelle ticket is being actively discussed among conservatives, though no formal decision has been made.
The family’s political future is further complicated by Jair Bolsonaro’s legal troubles. In addition to his coup conviction, he was declared ineligible for public office in 2023 for his repeated attacks on Brazil’s electronic voting system during the previous year’s campaign. Michelle Bolsonaro has not minced words in her criticism of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Lula administration, calling her husband’s trial a "judicial scam" and accusing the government of engineering chaos to deflect from its own failures. "The trial of Jair and other innocents was a judicial scam. [...] The accusations made against my husband were an attempt to hide serious violations that are occurring in Brazil, but they ended up exposing them," she told The Telegraph. She further argued that the Supreme Court’s insistence on maintaining what she called "irregularities" threatens Brazilians’ rights and freedoms.
Internationally, the fallout from Bolsonaro’s conviction has been dramatic. In early July, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration announced sweeping sanctions on Brazil, including a 50% tariff on Brazilian products. Michelle Bolsonaro was quick to place blame on Lula and STF Minister Alexandre de Moraes, contending, "The Lula government seems to be committed to provoking chaos in Brazil and then attributing it to Trump to explore the chaotic scenario that was actually created by its own policies." She lamented the sanctions but insisted that responsibility for the crisis lay squarely with the current Brazilian leadership, not with her allies in Washington.
Amid these political tremors, Brazil’s cultural sector is experiencing a renaissance of sorts, fueled in part by the very repression it faced during the Bolsonaro years. Wagner Moura, acclaimed actor and director, recently spoke to The Hollywood Reporter about his new film, The Secret Agent, Brazil’s submission for the 2026 Oscars. The movie, set against the backdrop of dictatorship and civilian complicity, draws direct inspiration from the Bolsonaro era, when, as Moura put it, "he basically destroyed every way of making movies in Brazil." Moura’s own directorial debut, Marighella, was finished in 2019 but only released in 2021 after Bolsonaro’s government withheld distribution funding, effectively censoring the project.
Moura sees clear parallels between Bolsonaro’s tactics—attacks on the press, universities, and artists—and the authoritarian playbook employed by former President Trump in the United States. "It’s undeniable that Trump has authoritarian positions, right? A man who attacks the press, attacks the universities, attacks artists. It’s the whole book of fascism," Moura observed. Reflecting on Brazil’s response to the January 8, 2023, insurrection attempt, he expressed pride: "The difference was that Brazil acted really fast, and put people in jail, they suspended political rights to Bolsonaro and went after the ones that financed the insurgency. We tried Bolsonaro. Just two weeks ago, the Supreme Court sentenced him to 27 years in jail. That didn’t happen in the U.S., and the reason I think it didn’t is that Brazilians know what a dictatorship is. We know how hardcore that is. We know how bad that shit is."
For Moura and many others, the swift and decisive actions of Brazil’s institutions stand in stark contrast to the United States’ handling of its own Capitol insurrection on January 6, 2021. This sentiment was echoed in an opinion piece published on September 28, which criticized the U.S. State Department and President Trump for imposing sanctions on Brazil despite its democratic reckoning with Bolsonaro’s insurrectionist actions. The author argued that while Brazil’s Supreme Court acted to protect democracy, the U.S. failed to hold its own leaders and participants accountable for similar offenses.
As Brazil looks ahead, the intersection of politics, justice, and culture promises to shape its identity in profound ways. Whether Michelle Bolsonaro emerges as a unifying conservative force or the nation’s artists continue to lead the charge against authoritarianism, one thing is clear: the country is not content to let history repeat itself without a fight. The coming year will test the resilience of its institutions and the vibrancy of its democracy, as Brazilians grapple with the legacies of dictatorship, insurrection, and the ever-present struggle for truth and justice.
