Mexico's political scene has been shaken up with the passage of significant judicial reforms under the watch of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). The changes, which will reshape how judges and magistrates are appointed—shifting from appointments to elections—have stirred up criticism from various sectors, including the opposition, legal experts, and international investors.
During his six-year term, AMLO's goal was to instill greater democracy within the judicial framework, but the recent legislative victory has raised serious concerns about the independence of the judiciary and the potential threats to the rule of law. This is significant considering the judicial overhaul allows for the election of over 7,000 judicial positions across the country, from the highest courts to district courts.
On September 4, 2024, after less than three days of heated debate, the Chamber of Deputies approved the reform by voting 359 to 135. The decision came less than six months before Mexican voters are set to select new judicial leaders, with the first elections planned for June 1, 2025. These elections will not follow the traditional voting format; rather, voters will have to handwrite their selections on the ballot, signaling significant changes to long-standing electoral practices.
The transition toward judicial elections has sparked fears among critics who assert it could lead to political manipulation and compromised judicial integrity, placing immense power within the ruling party—Morena. Claudia Sheinbaum, AMLO's chosen successor, will assume her position as president on October 1, 2024. She faces the immediate challenge of managing this controversial reform alongside economic hurdles, including high inflation and budget deficits believed to be the widest since the 1980s.
This overhaul may not only spell trouble for judicial independence but could also impact Mexico's relations with two of its largest trade partners, the United States and Canada, who have expressed concerns about the impending erasure of checks and balances.
Sheinbaum has publicly asserted her intention to follow through with AMLO's policies, affirming her commitment to judicial reform. Yet, she is likely to encounter severe backlash from both the public and political adversaries as she seeks to navigate this complex political terrain. Amid protests and strikes led by judicial workers who feel betrayed by the proposed changes—fueled partly by fear of political favors over judicial impartiality—Sheinbaum will need to gauge public opinion carefully as she steps calmly onto this unsteady political stage.
Indeed, many Mexican citizens were outraged during the passing of the reform. On the day of the vote, angry demonstrators breached the Senate chambers, resulting in heightened security and chaos as the government attempted to maintain order. With distrust surrounding the motives behind the legislative maneuver—it is alleged one opposition senator faced coercion to flip his vote—questions of integrity and fear over what future judicial independence may look like have become central to public discourse.
After the reform was approved, AMLO acknowledged the tense political atmosphere but defended the maneuvering, citing the need to balance political efficiency with principles. Yet, even this claim of efficiency has not sat well with many who believe AMLO's administration has been eroding checks and balances.
Following publicly mounting pressure, Sheinbaum is faced with the balancing act of reinforcing public trust and restoring the image of the ruling party, all now questioning whether they placed political ambition over the well-being of the Mexican people. Initial domestic investor sentiment has soured following the judicial reform debate, leading to increased volatility for the Mexican peso, which fell sharply leading up to the reform passage and has continued struggling against other currencies.
Meanwhile, López Obrador's administration's general economic outlook may hinder future growth, with central bank projections lowered to 1.5% this fiscal year. Significant state spending on the troubled national oil company, PEMEX, also threatens to strain finances—adding to the weight on Sheinbaum’s shoulders as she prepares to take charge.
Now, as Sheinbaum prepares for her inauguration, her inaugural speech will serve as the first significant indicator of how her administration will engage with the concerns surrounding the judiciary. Investors and citizens alike are hoping for reassurances, but whether she can shake the shadows of her predecessor remains to be seen.
On the horizon, other constitutional amendments are anticipated beyond the judicial sector, as citizens brace for changes and the potential for more radical reforms if the ruling party decides to pursue aggressive policy changes. With much at stake, many eyes will remain fixed on Mexico as Sheinbaum looks to navigate her legacy amid the turbulent waters and political ramifications of this judicial overhaul.
Moving forward, the ramifications of the judicial reforms, both immediate and long-term, will be ripe for scrutiny. Observers will be keeping tabs on the upcoming elections and the frameworks put in place for the selection of judges to determine if Mexico can realign its judicial system toward greater accountability and transparency—or if it will lead to increased political cronyism undermining justice and institutional integrity.
