With the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, Mexico braces for another tumultuous relationship with its neighbor to the north. Following the inauguration, President Trump quickly wasted no time reinstituting many of the hardline immigration policies he is known for, leading to both anxiety and action on the part of the Mexican government.
On January 21, 2025, shortly after Trump's inauguration, Mexican officials expressed their concerns about the direction of U.S.-Mexico relations. The Mexican Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, had immediate discussions with newly appointed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The talks, described as cordial, centered on pressing themes such as migration and security—issues likely to dominate the bilateral agenda moving forward.
Trump’s threats to erect barriers for migrants and his outright declarations of the cartels as terrorist organizations have triggered alarm across Mexico. Headlines the day after his swearing-in declared, "Trump Closes and Militarizes the Border with Mexico" and emphasized the urgency of the situation. Amidst the anxiety, President Claudia Sheinbaum advised Mexican nationals to maintain composure, asserting, "We are a free and independent country. We will seek coordination." She highlighted the necessity for Mexico to defend its sovereignty against potential unwanted interventions from the U.S.
Sheinbaum's administration quickly activated the program titled 'Mexico Embraces You' ("México Te Abraza"). This comprehensive initiative aims to provide support and assistance to Mexicans returning from the U.S. due to increased deportations. It encapsulates services ranging from psychological support to logistical help upon their return.
Despite Sheinbaum’s reassurances, the operation of CBP One—an app by the previous U.S. administration allowing migrants to schedule asylum appointments—was halted, exacerbated by Trump’s policies aimed at controlling the flow of migrants at the southern border. "All previously authorized appointments have been canceled," stated the Sheinbaum government, highlighting the immediate impact of Trump’s return on existing immigration solutions.
Meanwhile, human rights organizations have voiced grave concerns about the potential for humanitarian crises as deportations increase. Nonprofits like ' asylum Access Mexico' have warned of the fallout from nationalistic and exclusionary policies likely to prevail under Trump’s Administration. The United Nations also underscored U.S. responsibilities to uphold the rights of all migrants.
Investors and economists are closely monitoring the situation, with some initial fallout evident on financial markets. Following Trump’s threats of imposing hefty tariffs on Mexican goods, the valuation of the peso slightly dipped against the dollar but showed resilience overall as the stock market experienced gains. Economist Ramón de la Rosa opined, "The markets had already braced for these measures; they’re largely viewed as political pressure tactics rather than economically impactful changes."
The reopening of contentious discussions between the two governments came against the backdrop of Trump's adoption of familiar rhetoric toward Latin America. Recently, he remarked, "We don’t need them. They need us more than we need them," reinforcing fears of tough negotiations. This kind of statement, coupled with potential policy shifts, reminds many of the turbulent past relations with Trump at the helm.
Politically, Sheinbaum’s administration is committing to cooperation with the U.S. on security matters but remains adamant about not succumbing to external pressures. "We will cooperate with the United States, but our sovereignty shrunk to none. We are free and independent," she remarked firmly.
The first day of Trump 2.0 did not yield total chaos, yet it set the stage for uncertainty within differing sectors of Mexican society: from government officials to private citizens. Claudia Sheinbaum echoed sentiments of hope and caution, stating her administration would focus on implementing their strategies to protect Mexicans at home and abroad.