In a world where water scarcity is becoming an increasingly pressing issue, the tensions surrounding water rights between Mexico and the United States are reaching a critical point. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is now faced with the challenge of addressing these disputes while navigating the complexities of climate change and international relations.
In October 2015, NATO conducted a war game involving over 36,000 soldiers from 30 countries, simulating a scenario where water scarcity led to military conflict. The exercise highlighted the potential for water-related disputes to escalate into serious conflicts. Fast forward to today, and Mexico is experiencing its own water-related tensions, having engaged in 30 conflicts over the last five years, with four of those involving the United States, according to the Instituto del Pacífico.
Sheinbaum's administration began in a country grappling with severe water issues: all major rivers were polluted, 70% of water concessions were controlled by just 7% of landowners, and the nation had been in a prolonged drought for three years. The situation worsened when former U.S. President Donald Trump accused Mexico of stealing water from the United States, threatening sanctions and tariffs if the issue was not addressed. This marked a pivotal moment in the ongoing trade war, shifting the focus to water resources.
According to the 1944 Water Treaty, Mexico is required to deliver nearly 2,160 million cubic meters of water to the U.S. every five years, while the U.S. sends 1,850 million cubic meters annually via the Colorado River. However, in the last five years, Mexico has only managed to deliver about 30% of its required volume. As the deadline for the next delivery approaches in October 2025, Sheinbaum's government has been under immense pressure to resolve the situation.
On May 5, 2025, an agreement was reached, stipulating that Mexico must deliver between 400 and 518 million cubic meters of water before the October deadline. This requirement comes amid a backdrop of severe drought, with 65% of Mexico currently affected, and 30% experiencing extreme drought conditions, as reported by the Comisión Nacional del Agua (Conagua).
The La Amistad dam in Coahuila is currently at just 13.6% capacity, while the Falcon dam in Tamaulipas is at a mere 8.7%. These low levels pose significant challenges for Mexico in meeting its water obligations without jeopardizing its own domestic needs. The solution proposed involves sourcing water from the San Juan River, which has filled the El Cuchillo and El Azúcar dams to over 90% capacity, as well as the Luis L. León (El Granero) dam in Chihuahua, which is at 57% capacity.
Sheinbaum stated, "We will deliver the amount of water as much as we can. We must first guarantee human rights and agricultural irrigation." With the rainy season approaching, the government is banking on improved rainfall to aid in the water delivery process. Alongside these immediate measures, Sheinbaum's administration is also investing heavily in long-term water infrastructure projects.
This year, the Mexican government plans to spend 30.8 billion pesos (approximately 1.5 million dollars) on water-related projects, with a total investment of up to 186.5 billion pesos (about 9.5 million dollars) over the next five years. These funds will be allocated to the construction of new water infrastructure and the maintenance of existing systems.
Among the key projects is the Rosarito desalination plant in Baja California, which is set to commence construction in September 2025. Additionally, a new aqueduct in Colima and a dam in Durango (El Tunal II) will begin construction in June 2025. Improvements are also planned for various dams and aqueducts across the country, including La Paz, Zacatecas, and Tamaulipas.
Moreover, the government is launching a program aimed at enhancing irrigation efficiency over 240,000 hectares, which is expected to cost 7.7 billion pesos this year and 62 billion pesos by 2030. This initiative is crucial for ensuring that Mexico can fulfill its obligations under the 1944 treaty while also addressing domestic agricultural needs.
As Sheinbaum navigates these challenges, she faces criticism for her administration's handling of water resources and the ongoing drought. Critics argue that the situation has been exacerbated by a lack of effective water management and oversight. With only 100 inspectors available to monitor water exploitation in a country with vast water needs, the pressure on her administration to act decisively is mounting.
In the broader context of U.S.-Mexico relations, Sheinbaum's popularity has seen a significant boost due to Trump's aggressive stance towards Mexico. Recent polls indicate that Sheinbaum's approval ratings have surged to over 80% since Trump assumed office, largely attributed to his tariffs and military proposals. Trump's remarks, including his suggestion to send troops to Mexico to combat drug cartels, have overshadowed criticisms of Sheinbaum's judicial reforms, which some argue threaten Mexico's democratic institutions.
Despite the political turmoil, the pressing issue of water scarcity remains at the forefront. Former President Ernesto Zedillo has voiced concerns over the potential erosion of democratic norms in Mexico, urging Sheinbaum to pause her judicial reforms for a more extensive debate. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum's administration continues to advocate for increased self-sufficiency in water resources, emphasizing the need for a sustainable approach to water management.
As the deadline for water delivery approaches and the climate crisis intensifies, Mexico finds itself at a crossroads. The decisions made in the coming months will not only affect the agricultural landscape in the U.S. but will also have lasting implications for Mexico's water security and political stability. The stakes are high, and the world is watching.
