The year 2024 has seen Mexico grappling with unprecedented levels of cartel violence, leading to severe social and political ramifications across the nation. Human rights organizations and analysts are sounding alarms as they report stark figures surrounding the country's violence, which is reflected daily in news reports and headlines, showcasing the grim reality of the Mexican populace. With Chiapas becoming overrun and Sinaloa entangled in fierce battles between organized crime groups, places like Guanajuato and Guerrero are witnessing renewed massacres involving police and political figures.
This crisis has drawn significant international attention, with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) labeling Mexico as the fourth country with the highest conflict levels worldwide. The report cites the nation as experiencing extreme violence, following behind Palestine, Myanmar, and Syria. According to ACLED, more than 30,000 murders occur annually, contributing to Mexico being deemed the second most dangerous country for civilians, second only to Palestine.
ACLED’s director noted, “The most violent places are experiencing very different types of conflict; from bomb campaigns in the Middle East to collective violence in India and cartel wars here.” This assertion emphasizes the complexity of the confrontations occurring, as established crime groups such as the Sinaloa Cartel engage in violent power struggles with rivals including the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).
Major violent incidents, such as drone attacks by the La Familia Michoacana, have resulted in multiple casualties, contributing to over 4,000 people being displaced only in Tila, Chiapas. The report also indicates alarming trends as over 500 violent events targeted political figures this year, coinciding with the build-up to Mexico’s June elections amid this torrid atmosphere. The 2 June elections were marred by unprecedented violence, illustrating the larger trend of intimidation faced by potential leaders.
According to political analyst Carlos Pérez Ricart, the reality of cartel violence offers a unique challenge: “The Mexican case is extraordinarily difficult to define. It presents methodological and theoretical challenges for international organizations trying to draw parallels with other countries.” He highlights the necessity of addressing the stark realities of corruption and violence intertwined with criminal activities. Pérez Ricart indicated the need to recognize the extensive impact of global drug and arms trafficking through Mexico, which has created transnational conflicts.
ACLED's 2024 report shows how the internal fragmentation of the Sinaloa Cartel—present across at least ten states—has exacerbated violence and led to territorial disputes extending as far as Sonora and Chihuahua. The organization highlights recent violent escalations linked to various local organizations, emphasizing deterioration of peace across the country.
The emergence of new cartels and factions, to supplement the existing gangs, raises concerns. These developments signify potential territorial annexations and alliances—such as between the CJNG and Los Chapitos—to augment their collective influence. Such actions are likely to amplify future violence across already fraught territories.
Looking forward, ACLED’s predictions for 2025 suggest worsening violence driven by factors like the upcoming judicial elections slated for June, which exposes candidates vulnerable to coercion and manipulation by organized crime groups. The organization stresses the strategic importance of implementing security reforms, as increasing criminal infiltration could result from judicial corruption, fueling impunity.
Newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum faces significant hurdles as her administration advocates for new strategies against organized crime. Under her leadership, coordination with Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch emphasizes swift action and decisive policies targeting cartels. Sheinbaum's administration's first 100 days focus on establishing effective security strategies, which hinge on extensive cooperation across local, state, and national levels to ameliorate the humanitarian crises resulting from cartel activities.
Reflecting on Mexico’s intensified conflict scenarios, one can identify significant challenges as the nation navigates through its next phases of governance and violence prevention. Analysis indicates potential alliances among criminal organizations could emerge to challenge dominant factions within cartels. Sheinbaum’s initiatives and political outcomes will define the future path of security efforts, and observers insist it is imperative to confront the reality of violence where civilians are often caught amid sensational conflict.
Despite the tough challenges facing the new government, the integration of innovative safety measures remains pivotal. The enormous presidential elections have marked moss grey areas within the country, and the road to sustained peace remains treacherous. Future policies will require not only attention to systemic issues of governance but also the belief of the populace weary from years of violence.