The National Water Commission (Conagua) has issued a detailed weather forecast for Mexico, predicting significant changes triggered by the arrival of cold front number 27. This weather front is expected to sweep across the northern and northeastern regions of the country, bringing with it increased humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, leading to rainfall and storms.
Temperatures across various regions are predicted to fluctuate widely. For example, areas along the Pacific coast, from Sinaloa to Chiapas, could see soaring temperatures around 35 degrees Celsius. The eastern states, including the Yucatan Peninsula, will also experience intervals of drenching with scattered thunderstorms.
Specifically, Conagua forecasts isolated showers and varying conditions across Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Quintana Roo, with isolated rainfall predicted for regions including Michoacán, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche. The forecast for Mexico City anticipates morning temperatures ranging from 10 to 12 degrees Celsius, rising to 25 to 27 degrees by midday. Meanwhile, the neighboring city of Toluca is expected to experience even lower temperatures, with forecasts indicating highs of only 21 to 23 degrees Celsius.
February is well-known for its erratic weather patterns, earning the saying "Febrero loco y marzo otro poco". This year, weather conditions are set to exemplify this notion with continued fluctuations driven by the polar vortex making its presence felt as it shifts southward.
The polar vortex, currently shifting from Siberia to North America, is influencing the weather across the continent. Forecasters expect it to expand its reach from the Arctic down to regions of the southern United States and Mexico. Current atmospheric observations signal the polar vortex's movement is capable of causing abrupt temperature drops mixed with storm systems producing contrasting weather conditions.
Beginning this Sunday, the expected arrival of the cold front will result not only in colder temperatures but also strong winds, dubbed "Norte" winds, which could surpass 65 km/h along the Gulf of Mexico. This air mass will interact with pre-existing warm conditions, creating potential for intense storms inclusive of hail and significant temperature swings across central and southeastern areas of Mexico.
Heavy rainfall is anticipated, particularly across the central regions, with estimates of between 10 to 75 mm of rain expected to fall. Moderate to strong rainfall is predicted especially for states such as Mexico, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Forecasts suggest the potential for severe weather systems to create dangerous situations, particularly for vulnerable areas prone to flooding and landslides. Meanwhile, the cooler northern states such as Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas could experience significant drops in temperature, even leading to possible slushy conditions at higher altitudes.
With February shaping up to be wetter than normal across central, eastern, and southeastern Mexico, many regions could see above-average precipitation. This means February could yield beneficial rains for those areas, significantly impacting agriculture and water supply systems, especially following the shifts brought on by La Niña conditions assessed alongside polar vortex interactions.
While outcomes from these patterns can vary, and predicting the weather remains complex, the emphasis is on keeping communities informed and prepared. Residents of impacted areas are advised to stay abreast of weather updates and local advisories to navigate what promises to be another unpredictable February.”