The Mexican peso has shown volatility as markets react to potential U.S. tariffs set to take effect on March 4, 2025. On February 26, 2025, the peso depreciated slightly, trading at around 20.48 pesos per dollar after initially appreciating to 20.42 pesos during the overnight session, according to data from several Mexican banks.
This fluctuation marks a marginal decrease of 0.13% compared to the previous day’s closing price. The peso’s performance has reflected broader economic concerns, especially since President Trump reaffirmed his plans to implement tariffs affecting Canadian and Mexican products.
During the session on February 26, the exchange rate oscillated between 20.42 and 20.50 pesos per dollar, indicating stable yet cautious market conditions. Analysts are closely monitoring the negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico, which could carry significant consequences for the peso and overall trade.
Several banks have reported varying exchange rates for the dollar. For example, at Citibanamex, the dollar was quoted at 19.84 pesos for purchase and 21.03 pesos for sale, whereas BBVA Bancomer reported rates of 19.64 and 20.77 pesos respectively. Such disparities highlight the effects of local economic conditions and investor sentiment.
Market uncertainty stems not only from trade negotiations but also economic data. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) showed a reference exchange rate of 20.46 pesos per dollar on February 25, 2025, indicating fluctuative tendencies of the Mexican currency. The demand for pesos has been inconsistent, reflecting concerns over future investment flows and economic growth.
Investors have noted the overall momentum for the peso, which, over the week, has experienced minimal change, down by just 0.02%. Monthly, the peso has seen a more significant cumulative loss of 0.90%, prompting discussions on strategies for stabilizing its value.
The trading atmosphere has remained hectic, as uncertainties linger about the effectiveness of proposed tariffs. If executed, these tariffs could push the peso closer to resistance levels around 20.80 pesos per dollar—an unpleasant outcome for investors hoping for stabilization.
Despite these challenging conditions, Mexico's foreign investment had shown resilience, with the country totaling 36.87 billion dollars in direct foreign investment for 2024, rising by 2.3% from the previous year. This statistic demonstrates potential optimism amid fluctuatic policies and international dynamics.
Looking historically, 2024 began with the peso appreciating significantly against the dollar, hitting levels not seen for nearly a decade. The currency was dubbed the “superpeso,” but challenges arose from political decisions and external pressures, including former President Trump’s remarks and tariff threats, leading to recent depreciation.
Further complic.Controls are the expectations set by Banxico for 2025, which predicts stable inflation rates below 4%. Nonetheless, forecasts indicate low GDP growth at just 1.2% amid persistent economic challenges. This backdrop creates additional pressure on the peso to remain competitive against international currencies.
Overall, as of February 26, 2025, the peso continues to face headwinds, yet its future remains contingent on both local economic policies and the geopolitical climate surrounding U.S.-Mexican relations.