The Mexican peso has shown remarkable strength against the US dollar, advancing 1.73% during the week of March 7-14, 2025, with encouraging signs for the currency's future performance. The currency was bolstered by optimism surrounding potential tariffs from the US, which had raised concerns among investors.
According to Monex, this boost was accompanied by positive sentiments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who noted Mexico's decision not to institute retaliatory tariffs, unlike other countries such as Canada and the European Union. This positioned Mexico favorably among investors who are increasingly cautious due to fears of a looming recession in the United States. Those fears contributed to the weakening of the US dollar globally, providing even more support for the peso’s upward trend.
Felipe Mendoza, an analyst at ATFX Latinoamérica, observed, "The possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining or cutting interest rates has incentivized the flow of investment toward markets like Mexico." This influx of investment capital reflects broader market dynamics as investors seek safer havens during economic uncertainty.
On March 15, 2025, the average price of the US dollar was noted at 19.93 pesos, showcasing the peso's strong performance over the week. This figure marks the first time the currency has remained near the 19 pesos level since November 7, 2024, shortly after the US elections.
The closing data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) confirmed the dollar's closing price on March 14, 2025, at 19.9238 pesos, with the currency showing resilience against economic fluctuations. Importantly, the exchange rate designated for calculating obligations in dollars on this date stood at 20.0848 pesos per dollar.
Examining various banks reveals even more insights: Afirme Bank reported purchase rates at 18.90 and selling rates at 20.50 pesos, whereas Banco Azteca recorded rates of 18.95 for buying and 20.40 for selling. Other notable banks included BBVA Bancomer, which set its rates at 18.85 and 20.39 pesos, and Citibanamex at 19.32 for buying and 20.45 for selling.
Despite fluctuations and market adjustments throughout the day, this week's performance suggested growing investor confidence, bolstered by the lack of new tariffs and signs of economic strength. "The peso was propelled by greater optimism about potential US tariffs on Mexico," explained Monex.
Looking at the Mexican stock market, the S&P/BMV IPC index also reflected this momentum, rising 1.17% to 52,484.28 points on March 14, 2025. Even so, it registered a weekly decline of 0.67%. Among the stock movements, shares of airport operator Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASUR) saw significant gains, increasing 10.43% to 572.22 pesos, after announcing plans for shareholder dividends.
These dividends include 50 pesos as an ordinary dividend set for payout in May, along with two extraordinary dividends of 15 pesos each slated for September and November 2025. Such announcements tend to attract investors, underlining positive market projections for the company.
On the government debt front, the central bank successfully placed 33,870 million pesos during its swap of securities. They also announced plans for an extraordinary paper auction targeting up to 20,000 million pesos, scheduled for the week of March 16-22, 2025.
This structured approach signals both confidence and preparedness among Mexican financial institutions, exemplifying their agility during unpredictable market conditions. The capacity for adaptation plays a significant role as Mexico navigates its economic relationship with the US, especially amid shifting global economic currents.
Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic, noting the potential for continued peso appreciation should circumstances remain favorable. The path forward relies heavily on external factors, particularly the policy decisions coming from Washington and their repercussions on trade relations.
Overall, as investors keep their eyes on the US economy’s indicators, Mexico’s response to these challenges will be eagerly observed. The recent strength of the peso could represent not just immediate gains but also reflect broader trends as both nations adapt to new economic realities.