The exchange rate for the Mexican peso experienced slight fluctuations on December 26, 2024, as it traded around 20.15 to 20.18 pesos per U.S. dollar following the Christmas holiday. The interbank exchange rate closed at 20.17 pesos for the dollar the previous day, on December 25, 2024.
Opening markets on December 26 saw the peso priced at approximately 20.16 pesos per dollar—a modest 0.07% depreciation from the prior trading session. This marked another day of subdued activity as trading volumes remained low due to the aftermath of holiday festivities.
According to Bloomberg, the Mexican peso began the session with slight volatility, reflecting the easing trading atmosphere. Analysts noted the dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, showing minimal appreciation at 0.05%. Meanwhile, the euro and pound sterling both lost ground against the dollar, with declines of 0.03% and 0.27%, respectively.
Market reactions follow the historical performance of the peso, especially as the year 2024 draws to a close. Economists pointed out the fluctuation patterns throughout the year, marked primarily by political influences and economic shifts. Just earlier this year, the Mexican peso was riding high, trading at levels below 16 pesos per dollar, which was not seen for nearly ten years. This period of strength earned it the informal moniker of “superpeso.”
Despite early gains, the peso began to depreciate as the year progressed, primarily due to political uncertainties surrounding reforms influencing the judicial branch and the autonomous fiscal bodies. Further pressure came from the electoral prospects of Donald Trump as he campaigned for office, threatening tariffs on all products from Mexico if the country did not improve its border security.
Trading sessions reported during this period saw the dollar’s value inch back toward the 20 pesos mark. Banxico, Mexico's central bank, has provided forecasts indicating the average dollar exchange rate could range from 20.24 to 20.69 pesos throughout 2025, highlighting possible economic repercussions from Trump’s potential policies.
Inflation rates remained relatively stable this year, hovering around 4%, with notable peaks hitting nearly 6% back in June, as recorded by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Looking to 2025, Banxico projects inflation levels will remain subdued, potentially falling to around 3.8%.
Meanwhile, the growth of Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remains cautious, with optimistic projections estimating only 1.2% growth for the year. This low outlook reflects the broader anxieties impacting trade relations and economic expectations as the new year arrives.
The peso currently acts as the official currency of Mexico and holds considerable weight on the global stage—ranked as the fifteenth most traded currency worldwide. Before 1993, it was denoted as MXP, and it has now evolved to the abbreviation MXN, showcasing its significance even among nations where the dollar predominates.
Investors and traders alike are cautiously observing the fluctuations as they prepare for potential market shifts with the onset of Trump's administration and its attendant policies. Current trading of the U.S. dollar against the peso demonstrates average values spanning from 20.08 to 20.66 pesos, particularly at bank and exchange houses along the border region, which exhibit slight differences based on local demand.
With uncertainty enshrouding the economic climate, market participants remain poised for any major shifts. The day's trading reflected this sentiment, as participants weigh every nuanced change against historical trends for both currencies.
