In March 2025, Mexican exports saw a notable increase of 9.6% year-on-year, reaching a total value of $55.5 billion, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). This growth occurred despite the backdrop of tariffs imposed by the United States, which began charging a 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, and certain derivatives starting March 12, 2025. The country also reported a trade surplus of $3.44 billion, with imports totaling $52.08 billion, reflecting a 7.1% rise.
One of the key factors influencing these results was the timing of the Semana Santa holiday, which fell in March last year but in April this year, leading to fewer working days in March 2024. This comparison helped favor the current year’s results. In terms of seasonally adjusted figures, total Mexican exports showed a monthly advance of 2.96% in March 2025, while imports increased by 4.43%.
Approximately 80% of Mexico's exports are directed to the United States, making it the primary market for Mexican goods. Among the various categories of exports, manufactured products led the way with a value of $49.99 billion, marking a 10% annual increase. Significant gains were noted in machinery and special equipment for diverse industries, which surged by 50.2%, as well as minerometallurgy products (31.9%), domestic metal products (11.2%), professional and scientific equipment (11.0%), and automotive products (6.2%).
The rise in automotive product exports was attributed to a 6.5% increase in sales directed towards the United States and a 4% increase in sales to other markets. However, the oil sector also played a crucial role in the overall export figures. In March 2025, the value of oil exports was $2.17 billion, comprising $1.65 billion from crude oil sales and $519 million from other petroleum products. The average price for the Mexican export crude oil mix was reported at $65.79 per barrel, which was $3.20 lower than the previous month and $8.22 less than in March 2024.
In terms of volume, crude oil exports reached 811,000 barrels per day, which is an increase compared to the 752,000 barrels per day in February and 705,000 barrels per day in March 2024. On the agricultural front, the value of agricultural and fishing exports amounted to $2.3 billion, reflecting a 2.8% annual decrease. This decline was primarily driven by significant drops in exports of fresh strawberries (37.4%), onions and garlic (34.2%), cucumbers (30.9%), fresh vegetables (27.2%), and tomatoes (23.8%).
Conversely, some agricultural products saw notable increases, including avocado exports, which rose by 28.4%, and exports of melons, watermelons, and papayas, which increased by 31.9%. Extractive exports also experienced growth, reaching $1.06 billion in March 2025, reflecting an annual advance of 34.1%.
On the import side, consumer goods amounted to $7.05 billion, marking a 1.2% annual decrease. This decline was influenced by a 5.6% rise in non-oil consumer goods imports and a staggering 43.7% drop in imports of oil consumer goods, such as gasoline and butane/propane gas. Intermediate goods imports were valued at $40.39 billion, a 9.7% increase from March 2024. Imports of capital goods reached $4.65 billion, indicating a slight annual decline of 1.3%.
In the foreign exchange markets, the Mexican peso opened at approximately 19.52 pesos per dollar, representing a slight depreciation of 0.08% or 2 cents compared to the previous day. However, this depreciation was tempered by positive local economic data, particularly the trade balance surplus for March, which exceeded expectations despite the ongoing tariff impacts. According to specialists from Monex, the peso's performance was bolstered by these favorable indicators.
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, opened with a 0.13% appreciation. The euro fell by 0.11% against the dollar, while the British pound rose by 0.23%. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin saw a 1.7% increase, reflecting a growing appetite among investors.
As global stock markets opened the week, they exhibited mixed movements following a week of solid gains. Investors remain vigilant regarding trade and economic developments, particularly after comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated he was unaware of any ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. This week is particularly significant as it marks the intensification of quarterly earnings reports for the first quarter of 2025. Notable local companies such as Cemex, Femsa, and Gap are set to release their figures, while major U.S. firms like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, part of the so-called "Magnificent Seven," are also expected to report.
In Wall Street's pre-market trading, futures for major stock indices indicated a positive opening, highlighted by a 0.14% rise in the Dow Jones. European markets also showed positive movements, with the Euro Stoxx 600 advancing by 0.65%. In Asia, however, market performance was mixed; the Nikkei gained 0.38%, while the Hang Seng index fell by 0.78%. The price of U.S. WTI oil, a benchmark for the Mexican mix, dipped by 0.1%, as investors await further developments in the U.S.-China trade discussions.
The performance of metals was varied, with industrial metals showing gains while precious metals experienced declines. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, the interplay between tariffs, trade balances, and currency values remains critical for Mexico’s economic outlook.
