The NCAA tournament is finally here, and the Marquette Golden Eagles, a No. 7 seed, are set to face off against the 10th-seeded New Mexico Lobos in the first round of March Madness on March 21, 2025, in Cleveland. Both teams are entering the tournament with unique storylines, and this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle of basketball strategies.
New Mexico is coached by Richard Pitino, the son of Rick Pitino, who famously coached St. John’s to defeat Marquette in the Big East tournament semifinals just a week prior. This background adds layers to the matchup, especially as Marquette's struggles after February 1 have made them a potential upset pick. The Lobos, known for their strength on defense, will present a formidable challenge.
The Lobos come into the game ranked 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing only 95.2 points per 100 possessions. For context, Marquette only managed to win one out of five games against teams with higher defensive metrics earlier this season, highlighting the concerns they may face. Against press and roll plays, New Mexico has been particularly effective this season, giving up a mere 0.785 points per possession on pick-and-roll and pass plays, which is 22nd in the nation. This strong defensive performance positions them as a team that can disrupt Marquette’s flow.
Moreover, New Mexico has also excelled at forcing turnovers, successfully doing so on 18.8% of pick-and-roll possessions, tying for 11th best in the country. This statistic highlights their aggressive defense style, which puts heavy pressure on opposing ball handlers. Marquette's own turnover rate on similar plays sits at 20th in the nation, which may lead to decisive moments throughout the game.
In addition to their defensive prowess, the Lobos have weapons on offense as well. One player to watch is their standout guard, Donovan Dent, who brings an average of 20.6 points, 6.4 assists, and an impressive 41.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Dent's ability to score effectively could pose a notable issue for Marquette, which typically relies on its defensive guard Stevie Mitchell to contain high-scoring threats.
Coach Shaka Smart of Marquette is well aware of the potential pitfalls of this matchup. In addressing his team’s preparation, he emphasized the need to dissect New Mexico’s offensive and defensive strategies thoroughly. Smart mentioned, "We’ll dive into the particulars of who they are offensively and defensively,” underscoring the importance of understanding the Lobos' approach. The pace at which New Mexico plays—averaging 72.7 possessions per game—also plays into the hands of Marquette, which has struggled in slower-paced half-court games.
However, Marquette's style of play will need to adapt to the Lobos' significant shot-blocking ability. New Mexico ranks in the top 15 of all Division I teams in block rate, with opponents shooting at an efficiency of just 48.2% inside the arc. This can limit Marquette’s effectiveness near the basket, and the Golden Eagles will need to focus on perimeter shots if they wish to find success.
As we look back on recent matchups—Marquette's historical challenges against well-rounded defenses may provide further insight. The Golden Eagles were recently bested by St. John’s in the Big East tournament semifinals, where their inability to respond to a strong rebounding and defensive team was evident. Marquette will need to confront similar challenges against New Mexico, who ranks 21st nationally on the defensive glass and features standout rebounder Nelly Junior Joseph, ranked 10th overall in the nation for defensive rebounds.
In terms of scoring efficiency, Marquette leads the nation in attempts for pick-and-pop shots, but they have only managed just 0.96 points per shot on these plays. Conversely, New Mexico has shown an impressive dedication to limiting second-chance opportunities. Their aggressive boxing out and positioning will further challenge Marquette’s ability to establish offensive rhythm when shots clank off the glass.
The Lobos have also shown proficiency in transition play, capitalizing on turnovers to create breakout scoring opportunities. They rank in the top 40 nationally for generating turnovers and are 39th in steals, making them a serious threat whenever they force Marquette to play at a quicker pace.
Ultimately, the key to this matchup may lie in both teams’ adaptability to each other's unique playing styles. Marquette must focus on eliminating turnovers and converting open shots, especially on the perimeter, to counter New Mexico's intense pressure. As both teams enter this pivotal clash with their own stakes and ambitions at play, the game promises to be an exciting contest.
Fans will be eagerly observing how these two squads navigate their styles, and ultimately whether Marquette can shake off past disappointments and make a run in the tournament. This opening round could define the season for both teams, and signaling where they go from here as they reach for further opportunities in March Madness.
