On Wednesday morning, April 2, 2025, the foreign exchange market is buzzing with activity as the Euro is valued at 4.18 PLN, the Dollar at 3.88 PLN, and the Swiss Franc at 4.39 PLN. Financial markets are on edge, anticipating what many are calling the "day of liberation" in the USA. This day is marked by rising fears that Donald Trump's trade policies could significantly disrupt the global economic order.
As the clock ticks toward the announcement of new tariffs, analysts are grappling with the potential ramifications of Trump's latest move. "The market is waiting for details on reciprocal tariffs from the US, fearing a spike in the risk of a global trade war," commented Konrad Ryczko from DM BOŚ. The term "reciprocal tariffs" refers to adjustments that the US plans to implement to align its tariffs with those imposed by its trading partners, a move that could affect all countries with which the US maintains trade relations.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has urged President Trump and his administration to exercise caution before imposing tariffs on EU nations, emphasizing that both Poland and the entire EU have been loyal allies of the United States. Analysts from PKO BP echoed this sentiment, noting that such tariffs could have severe repercussions, particularly as the global economy is still recovering from previous trade tensions.
In Poland, attention is also focused on the upcoming decision from the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) regarding interest rates. Despite the ongoing discussions, analysts generally expect that the RPP will keep rates unchanged. The central bank's president, Adam Glapiński, is anticipated to provide insights that could hint at future monetary policy shifts, particularly with inflation rates still not meeting the National Bank of Poland's target.
As the day progresses, the Polish zloty is showing signs of strength against major currencies. After 12:25 PM, the exchange rates published by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) indicate that the USD/PLN stands at 3.8707 PLN, the EUR/PLN at 4.1794 PLN, the CHF/PLN at 4.3763 PLN, and the GBP/PLN at 5.0011 PLN. This marks a notable gain for the zloty, which has appreciated by 0.27% against a basket of major currencies.
Investors are keenly awaiting the clock to strike 21:00, hoping that the anticipated tariffs and reciprocal duties between the USA and the European Union will be softened. The EUR/PLN exchange rate has seen a slight depreciation of 0.21%, with daily highs reaching 4.1896 PLN and lows at 4.1730 PLN. Meanwhile, the USD/PLN rate has decreased by 0.30%, with daily peaks at 3.8835 PLN and troughs at 3.8621 PLN.
On the same day, the CHF/PLN rate is down by 0.39%, oscillating between daily highs of 4.3914 PLN and lows of 4.3673 PLN. The GBP/PLN rate is also falling, down by 0.15%, with daily highs at 5.0128 PLN and lows at 4.9941 PLN. This fluctuation in currency values illustrates the market's volatility and the impact of external economic factors.
As the Polish financial market opens, the values are consistent with those from the previous day. On April 1, 2025, around 9 AM, the Dollar was priced at 3.87 PLN, the Euro at 4.18 PLN, the Swiss Franc at 4.38 PLN, and the British Pound at 5.00 PLN. This stability suggests that while there are fluctuations, the overall market sentiment remains cautious yet optimistic.
Looking back to March 31, 2025, the Dollar was slightly lower at 3.85 PLN, while the Euro was priced at 4.17 PLN. The Swiss Franc and British Pound were also relatively stable, priced at 4.38 PLN and 4.99 PLN, respectively. This historical context provides a framework for understanding the current market dynamics as investors react to both local and global developments.
With the US tariffs set to be announced, the market's focus is not just on currency values but also on the broader implications for international trade. The potential for a trade war looms large, with experts warning that such a scenario could disrupt supply chains and economic stability worldwide.
In conclusion, as the day unfolds, the interplay between the Polish zloty and major currencies will be closely monitored, particularly in light of the impending announcements from the US. The hope among investors is that cooler heads will prevail, allowing for a more stable economic environment both in Poland and globally.
