On April 1, 2025, the Paris correctional court delivered a significant ruling against Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Rally (RN), condemning her to four years in prison, two of which are firm under electronic surveillance, alongside a 100,000 euro fine and five years of immediate ineligibility. This verdict, stemming from the misuse of public funds in the case involving parliamentary assistants of the former National Front, has been described by many media outlets as a "political earthquake" that could reshape the landscape of French politics, especially with the 2027 presidential elections on the horizon.
During a press conference following the ruling, Le Pen expressed her outrage, stating, "the system has released the nuclear bomb," indicating her belief that the judicial decision was a politically motivated attack on her and her party. This sentiment was echoed by Jordan Bardella, RN's president, who called for a "popular and peaceful mobilization" in response to what he deemed a "disproportionate" and "biased" ruling. Bardella's remarks highlight the party's strategy to rally support and counter the judicial decision, which they argue undermines the democratic process.
Since the announcement of the verdict, the RN has reported a surge in membership, claiming 10,000 new adherents, and has launched a petition that has garnered over 300,000 signatures in support of Le Pen. The party is also organizing a support meeting scheduled for April 6, 2025, at Place Vauban in Paris, next to the National Assembly, further signaling its intent to mobilize its base.
Criticism of the ruling has not been limited to the RN. Gabriel Attal, a prominent figure in the Renaissance party, condemned the RN's planned meeting as an affront to the independence of the judiciary. Attal's comments reflect the broader political tensions surrounding the case, as various parties navigate their responses to the verdict.
Le Pen's conviction has sparked significant debate among political figures across the spectrum. Pierre Cazeneuve, a member of Renaissance, suggested that the only relevant discussion should be about Le Pen's resignation, while François Bayrou called for a parliamentary reflection on the immediate execution of ineligibility penalties. Bayrou, who has shown support for the judiciary, emphasized that the magistrates must be protected in their duties and criticized any attempts to undermine their authority.
Despite her condemnation, Le Pen remains focused on her political future. She has announced her intention to appeal the ruling, aiming to have the decision overturned before the next presidential election. However, legal experts suggest that the appeal process may not conclude until spring 2026, with a final judgment unlikely before autumn 2026, raising questions about her viability as a candidate.
As the RN prepares for its upcoming meeting, the party is also facing significant public scrutiny. Recent polls indicate that a majority of French citizens—57%—view the court's decision as justified given the facts of the case. This public sentiment poses a challenge for the RN as it seeks to portray Le Pen as a victim of a biased system.
The international reaction to Le Pen's conviction has been equally notable, with figures such as Donald Trump comparing her situation to his own legal battles in the United States, framing it as a broader issue of political persecution. Support for Le Pen has also emerged from various far-right leaders across Europe, including Viktor Orbán, who expressed solidarity through social media.
Meanwhile, the French judiciary has faced threats following the ruling, prompting the judge who presided over Le Pen's trial, Bénédicte de Perthuis, to be placed under police protection. The threats against the magistrates have drawn condemnation from various political leaders, including Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of Justice, who labeled them as "unacceptable in a democracy." This situation underscores the heightened tensions surrounding the case and the broader implications for judicial independence in France.
As the RN navigates this tumultuous period, the party's messaging emphasizes resilience and determination. Le Pen has urged her supporters to channel their indignation into motivation, declaring, "We will be there until the end, we will be there until victory." This rallying cry aims to unify her base and maintain momentum despite the legal challenges she faces.
The upcoming months will be critical for Le Pen and the RN as they attempt to counteract the fallout from the court's decision while preparing for the political battles ahead. With the stakes high and the political landscape shifting, the implications of this ruling will likely reverberate through the French political system for years to come.
