Marine Le Pen and her associates are bracing for a critical day on March 31, 2025, as a court decision looms that could significantly alter their political future. The leader of the National Rally (RN), currently facing prosecution for misuse of public funds and complicity, could be sentenced to five years in prison, including two years without parole, alongside a hefty fine of 300,000 euros. More critically, she risks a five-year ineligibility sentence that could bar her from running in the 2027 presidential election.
Recent polling by Ifop, published on the same day, shows Le Pen with 37% of voting intentions, indicating her continued popularity despite the legal challenges she faces. In a bid to project calm, Le Pen spoke with La Tribune, stating, "I read here and there that we would be feverish. Personally, I am not, but I understand that one can be: with the provisional execution, the judges have a right of life or death over our movement. I do not believe they will go that far." This statement highlights the precarious position of her political career, hinging on the judges' decision.
Le Pen has been accused of orchestrating a scheme involving fictitious jobs for parliamentary assistants during her tenure as head of the National Front (now RN) from 2004 to 2016. Prosecutors allege that the RN turned the European Parliament into its "cash cow," establishing a systematic misappropriation of funds that resulted in an estimated loss of 4.5 million euros. This situation has raised the stakes not just for Le Pen, but for the entire party, with 25 other defendants, including prominent figures like Louis Alliot, the mayor of Perpignan, also facing serious repercussions.
In an internal environment characterized by anxiety, RN officials have attempted to downplay the gravity of the situation. Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a deputy from the Somme, defended Le Pen as an "honest mother" dedicated to her country, while Sébastien Chenu, the party's vice-president, described the legal challenges as merely "a hedge to be crossed among all the hedges that must lead us to power tomorrow." However, behind closed doors, there is a palpable sense of dread regarding the potential outcome.
As the date approaches, some party members express concern that Le Pen's potential ineligibility could have severe implications for the RN's political strategy. Laurent Jacobelli, another RN deputy, warned of a "denial of democracy," suggesting that the party is in a "sort of fatalism" but remains focused on broader issues affecting the French populace.
Le Pen's case has been described as a "political tsunami" by observers, particularly due to the prosecution's request for immediate execution of any ineligibility ruling, which would take effect as soon as the court issues its decision. This request has sparked fears that, should Le Pen be found ineligible, it could disrupt the RN's momentum heading into the next election cycle.
In her public statements, Le Pen has characterized the prosecution's motives as politically motivated, claiming, "The will of the prosecution is to deprive the French of the capacity to vote for those they wish." This rhetoric resonates within the RN, which has long positioned itself as an outsider fighting against a corrupt political establishment.
As the court prepares to announce its decision, the implications for the RN and Le Pen's future remain uncertain. While she will not lose her current parliamentary seat, a ruling of ineligibility could force her to step back from the political spotlight, potentially paving the way for other party leaders, such as Jordan Bardella, to take the helm. Bardella, currently the party's president, is seen as a capable successor should Le Pen be sidelined.
The stakes are high, not just for Le Pen but for the entire political landscape in France. The decision on March 31 could reshape the RN's trajectory and influence the party's strategy leading up to the 2027 presidential election. With a history of three presidential bids and two final appearances, the outcome could either bolster or cripple Le Pen's ambitions.
As the political drama unfolds, many are left wondering how the judiciary's decision will be interpreted by the public and the media. The RN's narrative of victimhood may gain traction, especially if Le Pen is indeed found guilty, as party officials work to frame her as a martyr for the cause.
In summary, the upcoming court ruling represents a pivotal moment for Marine Le Pen and the RN. With implications that could resonate throughout the French political arena for years to come, all eyes will be on the judges as they deliver their verdict on this high-stakes case.
