The NCAA March Madness tournament is entering its Sweet 16 phase, providing a critical juncture as teams seek to make their mark on this storied event. Following the conclusion of the initial rounds, the betting trends show that favorites have largely held their ground, establishing interesting patterns for bettors and fans alike.
As of Monday, March 24, 2025, the tournament saw favored teams continue to assert their dominance. Notably, favorites of 8 points or more recorded an impressive 18-0 record straight up (SU) so far in the tournament, marking a significant moment as this is only the fourth time in NCAA history that such a feat has occurred. Additionally, teams favored by 6 points or more achieved a record of 26-2 SU, with a 19-9 against the spread (ATS) ratio showing that the betting favorites are performing well.
Interestingly, the Sweet 16 lineup stands out as well. For the first time since 2007, no 11 seeds or higher remain in the running, with top-4 seeds having an overall 19-13 ATS record in this year's tournament and a stellar 40-22 ATS across the last two tournaments. Conversely, lower-seeded teams attempted to make their case by finishing 27-21 ATS through the first two rounds.
In particular, the Southeastern Conference (SEC) has shown a resurgence. Despite a lackluster start at 5-9 ATS, SEC teams rebounded strongly in the Round of 32, going 6-2 ATS, marking three of the five most notable upsets—examples being Ole Miss and Arkansas, which underscored their capabilities as underdogs throughout March. The SEC's performance this season as underdogs against non-conference foes is commendable as they stand at 28-13 ATS, with a 15-7 SU record overall in the tournament.
Betting lines have also generated buzz, specifically surrounding the Alabama versus BYU game, where the over/under sits at a staggering 175.5. The historical context suggests that only five games have closed above a total of 170 in the last 30 years, with three happening just last year involving Alabama. This year, fans also witnessed a game with a record total of 181.5 between Alabama and Kentucky, the highest since 2019.
Alabama's head coach Nate Oats, who has proven adept at preparing his team under tight schedules, boasts a solid 22-12-3 ATS record when on two days' rest or less during his coaching stints. Supporting evidence for his strategies is his impressive 18-6-1 ATS performance as a favorite in the same situations.
On the contrary, long-time coach John Calipari experiences new territory. He had never been an underdog in the Round of 64 until this year, where he allowed Arkansas to beat a 2-seed opponent previously. Additionally, both Arkansas and Ole Miss are poised to become historical figures: if they win again, they’ll be part of an exclusive group of only 16 teams since 1985 who have progressed that far as underdogs across the first three rounds into the Elite 8.
What's more, the tournament's landscape is significant for another reason: none of the remaining 16 teams had odds greater than 100-1 entering as potential winners this year, a historical first since 2009.
Florida’s tournament trajectory has raised eyebrows. Initially securing a victory over Norfolk State without covering, they managed to follow up with another win against UConn, though they again fell short against the point spread. Historical context reveals they entered the tournament with 60-1 odds, and since 1985, only one team has won the national title after such a start, Arizona in 1997.
The competition has also raised geographical insights: since Arizona claimed the title in 1997, no western team has won it all, with BYU and Arizona being the only representatives from that region remaining.
Returning to betting trends, it's notable that teams leading at halftime struggled against the spread in this tournament, showing a concerning 21-30 performance against the second-half spread as March Madness unfolded. This has implications for both coaches and bettors, demonstrating a trend that could affect future matchups.
Historically, teams like Houston have had challenges in the Sweet 16, having lost in this round consecutively in 2023 and 2024 while favored. Although it has become a common narrative that one-seeds maintain formidable strength, only Duke has lost in consecutive years when entering as a one-seed, with 35 one-seeds having lost in this round all-time since 1980.
In terms of betting history, notable teams and their performances before now are telling. For instance, only four teams since starting to use seeding in 1978 have won it all with odds above 20-1. The focus shifts now towards teams like Michigan State at 25-1 and Texas Tech at 35-1, each of whom made a mark with their pre-tournament odds.
As the Sweet 16 approaches and NCAA enthusiasts gear up for the action, it's clear the tournament remains full of surprises. Continued tracking of the SEC's resurgence, the performance of underdogs, and the behaviors of historical favorites in this pivotal stage will all play critical roles in shaping the outcomes of this year's tournament.
