The Toronto Maple Leafs are currently at a crossroads as they evaluate their player roster and defensive pairings, especially focusing on their recent performance metrics and how adjustments might affect their chances this season. The team has seemingly struck gold with the pairing of Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe, both players showing significant synergy on the ice.
Defensively, the recent statistics reveal promising results from the duo of Tanev and McCabe, with advanced metrics indicating effective play. Meanwhile, Phillippe Myers, who recently re-signed, has been paired successfully with Morgan Rielly, resulting in impressive results—specifically, they’ve registered a 59% expected goals (xGoals) rating together. This marks a substantial upgrade compared to the less favorable 49% rating Rielly had alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson (OEL), and even worse when paired with Benoit, McCabe, or Hakkanpaa, as noted by statistics from Natural Stat Trick.
While Ekman-Larsson hasn't been stellar for the Leafs, he appears more suited for third-pairing duties. Concern has arisen over Simon Benoit’s performance, evidenced by low statistics and effectiveness. Critics are alarmed by how Benoit has continued to receive ample playtime, prompting discussions about roster upgrades. Benoit displays solid defensive capabilities when the game is static—e.g., during penalty kills—but the reality of the fast-paced NHL environment means his puck-moving skills are lacking, often resulting in more defensive responsibilities for his teammates.
A closer examination of Benoit’s statistics reveals alarming findings. His on-ice metrics show the Leafs garner just 44% of puck possession when he plays, with only 45% of shots taken being from the Leafs’ side. The scoring chances against the Leafs when Benoit is on the ice tell a discouraging story: they fall behind 266 to 190. And when it matters the most—dangerous chances—Benoit has the Leafs taking only 41% of those opportunities. With only four assists amassed over 37 games, his numbers starkly indicate the need for roster reevaluations.
On the flip side, if Myers and Rielly can maintain their current form, it may allow the Leafs to simply seek someone to upgrade Benoit’s position instead of making larger trades for high-profile defensemen, which seem less feasible due to the team's salary cap constraints and the pressing need for forward reinforcements.
The Maple Leafs are also contemplating adding more toughness to their lineup as they prepare for intense matchups, particularly against the Boston Bruins, who are known for their aggressive play style. With Auston Matthews coming back from injury, there’s conversation about lineup adjustments. Craig Berube has faced decisions on who to keep active on the fourth line, as evidenced by the insertion of Connor Dewar alongside David Kampf and Steven Lorentz.
While Dewar has been effective, there is sentiment among analysts favoring the need for additional muscle to balance the Bruins' gritty game, especially considering their track record against the Leafs. Ryan Reaves, though not scoring frequently, has been bringing valuable energy and grit, having showcased his worth even with limited points—he has one assist and six hits against the Islanders recently. The intangible aspects of having Reaves on the ice are viewed as significant advantages against aggressive teams.
Despite Reaves often being scratched from the lineup owing to other strategic needs, his potential absence against the Bruins raises concerns. If Boston’s tougher players decide to target Matthews, having Reaves to dish out payback would be necessary for maintaining team morale and safety on the ice.
It remains to be seen whether Berube will revert to utilizing Reaves as part of his strategy, as the looming threat of the Bruins necessitates thorough consideration. The Maple Leafs face the dual challenge of finding the right combination on their blue line, assessing overall performance metrics of their players, and potentially weighing adjustments to inject toughness appropriate for upcoming high-stakes matchups.
The team’s strategy going forward appears to be heavily reliant on roster decisions; whether it involves upgrading for individual player capabilities like Benoit or bringing forth players like Reaves who can play the enforcer role will be pivotal for the Maple Leafs as they strive to secure playoff positioning amid the stress of NHL competition.