The race for New York City’s mayoralty in September 2025 has taken on the air of a political drama, with old rivalries, shifting allegiances, and a city grappling with profound challenges. The latest Marist Poll, released on September 16, 2025, paints a striking picture: Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic Party’s nominee and a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, leads former Governor Andrew Cuomo by 21 points among likely voters. But as the campaign barrels toward its conclusion, the numbers only tell part of the story.
According to the Marist Poll, Mamdani commands 45% support among likely voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate. Cuomo, running as an independent after his defeat in the Democratic primary, trails with 24%. Curtis Sliwa, the perennial Republican contender, holds 17%, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams languishes at 9%. Five percent remain undecided, a small but potentially pivotal group in a city known for its political surprises.
Digging deeper, the poll reveals Mamdani’s strength among Democrats: 58% of likely Democratic voters back him, compared to just 23% for Cuomo. Sliwa, meanwhile, enjoys robust support among Republicans, with 54% in his corner. The city’s non-enrolled voters, often a swing bloc, are more divided: Sliwa leads with 31%, Cuomo follows closely at 30%, and Mamdani lags at 20%, with 10% undecided. These numbers suggest that, despite Mamdani’s overall lead, the race is far from monolithic and could shift depending on turnout and late-breaking developments.
Speculation about the field’s makeup has fueled further intrigue. If Adams were to bow out, Mamdani’s support would tick up to 46%, with Cuomo rising to 30% and Sliwa at 18%. In a hypothetical head-to-head between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani’s lead narrows to 10 points—49% to 39%. Among Democrats, Mamdani would secure 61%, while Republicans would swing decisively to Cuomo at 66%. Non-enrolled voters, in this scenario, would favor Cuomo by a wide margin, 50% to Mamdani’s 29%.
But how do voters feel about the fairness of the race? The city is split: 27% believe the contest would be more fair if Adams and/or Sliwa exited, 24% say less fair, and nearly half—48%—think it wouldn’t make any difference. The pollsters also posed a provocative hypothetical: if former President Donald Trump were to encourage Adams and Sliwa to step aside, a majority of likely voters (57%) believe it would benefit Cuomo, while 39% think it would help Mamdani. These findings reflect the city’s complex political landscape, where party lines blur and personalities loom large.
Despite the twists and turns, a decisive majority—63%—of likely voters believe Mamdani will ultimately win. Only 20% think Cuomo will prevail, while Adams and Sliwa each garner belief from just 7% and 6%, respectively. Among Democrats, faith in Mamdani’s victory is even stronger at 73%, and among non-enrolled voters it stands at 51%. Republicans, however, are less convinced, underscoring the deep partisan divides shaping this race.
Favorability ratings add another layer to the contest. Mamdani enjoys a majority favorable impression citywide, with 33% of likely voters viewing him very favorably and 19% somewhat favorably. Still, four in ten see him unfavorably, including 32% very unfavorably. Cuomo, on the other hand, struggles with image issues: only about four in ten have a positive view, while 39%—and a striking 44% of Democrats—hold a very unfavorable opinion. Sliwa is viewed positively by just over a third of likely voters, and Adams fares even worse, with fewer than three in ten expressing any degree of favorability. Notably, 48% of likely voters, including a majority of Democrats, have a very unfavorable view of the current mayor.
The poll also captures broader discontent: 60% of likely voters hold a very unfavorable opinion of President Trump, with another 5% somewhat unfavorable. Only a third see him positively. Meanwhile, the city’s mood is somber—55% of adults believe quality of life in New York City has worsened over the past year, up sharply from 36% in 2018. Affordability is a near-universal concern, with 88% of adults saying the city is not very affordable or not affordable at all. These anxieties form the backdrop for a campaign defined as much by frustration as by hope.
Against this backdrop, the campaign has become a referendum not just on personalities but on the very soul of the Democratic Party. As reported by The New York Times on September 16, 2025, Andrew Cuomo offered a scathing critique of his former party, declaring, “Admire? None comes to mind,” when asked to name living Democrats he admired. Instead, he cited his late father, Mario Cuomo, and the Kennedy brothers—figures from a bygone era. Pressed further, Cuomo gave only tepid praise to Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and California’s Gavin Newsom, calling the former “a good manager” and the latter “doing the best he can.”
In stark contrast, Mamdani rattled off a list of progressive Democratic officials he admires, including Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, New York Attorney General Letitia James (who has endorsed his campaign), and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. This divergence underscores the generational and ideological rifts now animating New York politics. Cuomo, once a mainstay of Democratic power, now finds himself running as an outsider, even as he tries to warn voters that Mamdani’s “far-left positions” are out of step with the city. Mamdani, for his part, has sought to distance himself from some of the more controversial planks of the Democratic Socialists of America, even as he embraces the group’s broader vision for change.
Cuomo’s campaign has also been shaped by his own complicated legacy. After resigning as governor in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations—which he denies—Cuomo has cast his mayoral run as both a comeback and a chance to shape the party’s future. Yet, as The New York Times notes, his path to victory is narrowing. “If they’re voting on age and youth, then you don’t sway them,” Cuomo admitted, acknowledging the generational shift at play. Still, he remains defiant: “I don’t know what the future holds, but I don’t intend on losing.”
Endorsements have further clarified the stakes. On September 14, 2025, Governor Kathy Hochul threw her support behind Mamdani, citing their shared commitment to tackling the city’s affordability crisis. Cuomo dismissed the endorsement as “a political decision on a political endorsement and what works for their politics,” insisting that such gestures “don’t mean that much in campaigns anymore in general.” He expects more high-profile Democrats, including Senator Chuck Schumer and Representative Hakeem Jeffries, to follow suit, but remains skeptical that endorsements will sway voters in a city hungry for substantive solutions.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the city’s voters face a stark choice: embrace a new generation of progressive leadership with Mamdani, or return to Cuomo’s brand of seasoned pragmatism. With affordability, quality of life, and party identity all on the line, New York’s mayoral contest is shaping up to be a defining moment for America’s largest city.