Maharashtra's political stage has been set ablaze with the recent results from the 2024 Assembly elections. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance has emerged victorious, securing 235 seats out of the 288-member assembly. This landslide victory enables the alliance to retain its hold over the state, marking yet another significant moment for the BJP and its allies.
The Election Commission of India disclosed the detailed results, indicating the BJP garnered 132 seats alone. Their coalition partners, Eknath Shinde’s faction of Shiv Sena, collected 57 seats, and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) captured 41. Other minor parties, including Jan Surajya Shakti, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, and the Rashtriya Yuva Swabhiman Party, secured additional seats for the alliance, bringing the total to the impressive 235. These figures represented not only a significant gain from previous elections but also reflected the voters' trust placed upon the current government.
Voter turnout for this election was noteworthy, rising to 66.05%, compared to 61% during the previous elections, indicating heightened engagement among the electorate. The elections themselves took place on November 20, and since then, the political atmosphere has been charged with speculation about the next Chief Minister.
The political battle leading up to this election was fierce, featuring continuous clashes between the Mahayuti and the opposition coalition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), consisting of the Congress, the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena, and the Sharad Pawar faction of NCP. Despite predictions from several exit polls favoring the Mahayuti alliance, the actual results have exceeded those expectations, leaving the opposition to scramble for answers.
Post-election, the spotlight now turns to the contentious question of leadership within the Mahayuti alliance. Although Eknath Shinde has shaped his image as the Chief Ministerial candidate, there has been considerable pressure from BJP ranks advocating for the return of Devendra Fadnavis to the Chief Minister's seat. Fadnavis, having previously served as CM, is viewed by many BJP workers as the architect of the party's impressive electoral performance.
Fadnavis's organisational talents during the campaign have not gone unrecognized. Reports suggest he is seen as the frontrunner for the Chief Minister position, albeit with Ajit Pawar’s support leaning toward Fadnavis, which creates interesting dynamics for the alliance.
Meanwhile, grassroots support for Shinde remains strong among certain demographic groups. Beneficiaries of his policies, such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana, have rallied behind him. On November 24, these supporters organized gatherings, showcasing their gratitude and urging him to continue as their leader. The Ladki Bahin Yojana, aimed at empowering women and providing them assistance, is being cited as central to the Mahayuti's success at the polls.
Despite these loyalties, internal party dynamics indicate increasing tensions. The BJP and Shiv Sena factions have both claimed credit for the electoral win, but this could lead to friction as decisions on cabinet positions and ministerial allocations need to be made. Reports suggest the BJP may secure around 20-22 ministerial positions, with both Shinde's faction and Ajit Pawar’s NCP trying to stake claims to key portfolios.
Conversely, the MVA has been left reeling from its defeat. With only 49 seats won, questions are being raised about the coalition's future. Leaders from this alliance are gathering, trying to make sense of the electoral setback. A significant meeting of newly elected NCP legislators led by Sharad Pawar took place, during which members expressed doubts about the integrity of the election process, including allegations of electronic voting machine tampering.
The Mahayuti faction’s substantial victory—particularly its success with Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) reserved seats—has put the limelight on their strategies against claims made during the Lok Sabha elections. Not long ago, the MVA campaigned aggressively against the BJP-led government, positing fears about attempts to alter the Constitution and abolish reservation policies. The alliance’s ability to win 21 out of 29 SC-reserved and 21 out of 24 ST-reserved seats speaks volumes about their counter-narrative toward these accusations.
The election results have also catalyzed movements within the MVA, with the party leadership insisting on regrouping and plans for future strategies being discussed. Aaditya Thackeray has been elected as the leader of the Shiv Sena (UBT), emphasizing continuity and resilience amid the adverse electoral outcomes.
Looking forward, the formation of the Maharashtra government remains under discussion amid consultations involving major stakeholders. With meetings scheduled between top BJP officials and central leaders, clarity is expected shortly on who will assume the Chief Minister’s office. Ajit Pawar's hints of friction between opposing factions within the NCP indicate potential conflicts, with his support possibly shifting depending on the resolutions made within the Mahayuti alliance.
Political analysts suggest the inertia surrounding the decision to form the new government is likely to persist until all factions agree on leadership roles and policy directions. Observers will closely monitor the political maneuvers over the coming days as the BJP and its allies strive for unity within their ranks to prepare for the newly elected term, working to leverage their victorious momentum as they govern the state.
"The results speak to the electorate's approval of our agenda of development and good governance," remarked Prime Minister Modi, as he celebrated the successes of his party and allies. Analysts speculate on the long-term impacts of this election, considering how these results could reshape the political map of Maharashtra moving forward. With party loyalty and cross-interests shaping the political narrative, the aftermath remains riveting and full of potential surprises.
