The political atmosphere of Maharashtra is currently charged with anticipation as exit polls for the 2024 Assembly elections suggest intriguing outcomes, hinting at the possible revival of the ruling Mahayuti coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies. With both state and national eyes glued to the election results set to be declared on November 23, various poll predictions have emerged, fueling speculation and debate across party lines.
According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is projected to secure between 170 to 200 seats out of 288, backed by approximately 48% of the popular vote. Meanwhile, the opposition coalition, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), is forecasted to attain between 82 to 102 seats, garnering about 37% of the votes. Similar predictions have been echoed by the C-Voter survey, which displays Mahayuti at the helm with estimates of 112 seats, compared to MVA's 104 seats, reflecting a fiercely contested election.
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, Mohan Yadav, expressed his confidence, stating, "Mahayuti government is going to form again in Maharashtra, and BJP is winning in Jharkhand.” He remarked on the atmosphere of trust growing toward the BJP across the country. Yadav, alongside other BJP leaders, anticipates favorable results based on the momentum observed from by-elections held nationwide.
On the flip side, the opposition leaders, especially from Congress, are not ready to bow down to the exit polls' predictions. Congress leader Rakesh Sinha dismissed the significance of the projections, insisting, "Exit polls don’t form governments; people do." He highlighted the support for the India Alliance (INDIA) among the youth, women, and farmers, attributing it to social welfare initiatives introduced by the coalition.
The skepticism around exit polls is not uncommon, even within the parties themselves. Shiv Sena UBT leader Anand Dubey labeled the exit polls as merely entertainment, referencing past miscalculations by polls predicting Congress victories where BJP ended up forming the government. "We will know the actual results on November 23," he remarked, asserting his optimism against the backdrop of the exit poll results.
Further complicity arises with the uncertainty embedded within polling data. The C-Voter predicts numerous races to be too close to call, stating as many as 61 seats could pivot the final outcome, adding layers of unexpected turns when the results are finally announced.
Regionally, the exit polls indicate strong performances by the Mahayuti alliance across key regions such as Mumbai, Western Maharashtra, and even parts of Northern Maharashtra, with polling data capturing their projected dominance. For example, they are anticipated to win 22 out of 36 seats in Mumbai, which speaks volumes about their assertive electoral strategy.
BJP spokespersons share the sentiment of confidence. Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh proclaimed the NDA's anticipated success, asserting, "We know this since earlier, and we know the NDA is going to form the government" across both Maharashtra and Jharkhand. This echoes previous instances where the party thrived against predictive polls.
Meanwhile, other BJP leaders like Anil Vij emphasized the BJP's expected victories, reinforcing trust within their ranks and contending against Congress’s claims of election tampering and EVM hacking. Vij critiques the Congress for raising alarms over the legitimacy of the electoral process, questioning their credibility if they label EVMs as manipulated.
Despite the varied predictions, many political analysts reflect on exit polls’ reliability, as historic inaccuracies often attract scrutiny. Past elections exhibited significant discrepancies when predictions sharply deviated from actual count results. Such reflections prompt calls for caution among voters and political groups alike.
The current prevailing narrative suggests dynamics are shifting within the political framework of Maharashtra, as the ruling alliances fight tooth and nail to maintain their stronghold, and the opposition endeavors to reclaim lost ground. Exit polls may predict trends, but the ultimate authority lies with the constituents come election day.
The upcoming weeks promise to be pivotal for Maharashtra as it navigates through uncertainties leading to the announcement of official results, reflecting not only the local pulse but also the broader sentiments shaping the Indian political roadmap leading up to national elections.
