Emmanuel Macron is poised to tell Sir Keir Starmer at the upcoming EU Council summit on Monday, October 30, 2023, about the apparent failure of Brexit, according to senior diplomats. Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, will be the first UK leader to join the EU Council dinner since the country’s departure from the bloc three years ago, marking a symbolic step aimed at resetting UK-EU relations.
During this momentous meeting at the Palais d’Egmont, where the UK first entered the European Economic Community some fifty years ago, Starmer is expected to articulate the need for closer defence and security cooperation to strengthen both Britain and the EU against external threats, particularly from Russia. "I do want to see a closer relationship on defence and security, on energy, on trade and our economy," Starmer remarked, highlighting his agenda for discussion.
Behind closed doors, EU diplomats have described Starmer as the “demandeur,” indicating he is returning to the EU with renewed urgency partly due to the UK’s weakened position post-Brexit. Macron reportedly holds the opinion, as revealed by The Times, "The Brexit project, breaking away from the EU to create a global Britain, didn’t work. We thought it wouldn’t work because the UK is European, geographically and economically. Brexit was built for a stable, prosperous world, but now the UK will be closer to Europe.”
Starmer faces significant diplomatic hurdles as he aims to bolster ties with European partners. His strategy includes advocating for increased military aid to Ukraine, as the continent continues to grapple with the repercussions of Russia's aggression. EU leaders are expected to deliberate on amplifying their defence budgets and reinforcing military support for Ukraine. Diplomats assert it is imperative for Britain to align its defence posture with the EU’s efforts.
While diplomatic ties could improve, Starmer must contend with tough negotiations covering other aspects of the UK-EU relationship, such as fishing rights and proposed youth mobility agreements which allow young people to live, work, and study across EU nations. Some UK officials claim Britain is close to finalizing such mobility agreements, which would fulfill Brussels' demands for cooperation.
Simultaneously, the specter of U.S. trade policy under Donald Trump complicates matters. Following the imposition of tariffs on various countries, UK officials are cautious about potential U.S. tariffs targeting European goods, which could adversely affect UK exports and evoke broader economic instability. With the U.S. potentially gearing up for another trade conflict, Starmer’s task of reshaping UK-EU ties becomes ever more delicate.
Macron’s candid remarks about Brexit’s perceived failures resonate deeply within the European arena. His perspective aligns with observations from Poland's foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, who declared on BBC Radio 4, "We would like to have Britain as a major partner on defence. We watch British opinion polls and it appears the majority of the British public now think Brexit was a mistake." Although Brexit is not viewed as reversible, there remains openness to building upon the security partnership.
Indeed, Starmer aims to leverage Britain’s strong support for Ukraine to pave the way for enhanced cooperation with the EU. He is likely to push for renewed sanctions against Russian assets, as he urges European allies to show resolve alongside military support for Ukraine. The parallel threat of heightened U.S. protectionism hangs over these discussions, compelling Starmer to adopt vigilance as he navigates this complex geopolitical terrain.
The road to improving UK-EU relations is filled with potential trade-offs; Starmer hopes he can convert the UK’s military involvement and foreign policy strategies against Russia to gain goodwill necessary for establishing stronger economic ties.
European leaders are acutely aware of their leverage, as Starmer’s government would require concessions—potentially including access to British fishing waters—in exchange for enhanced defence collaboration. The balancing act is increasingly fraught, yet imperative for both Starmer and Macron, as they seek to address mutual security concerns and revive enduring transnational relationships overshadowed by the fallout from Brexit.
This week’s summit could very well signal whether Britain can reclaim its role as a pivotal player within Europe or if it continues to grapple with the fragmented consequences of its prior decisions.