Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) have been on a remarkable upswing, trading higher for the third consecutive day on March 21, 2025, following a significant increase of over 6 percent during this period. Investors are keenly observing the energy sector, especially as HPCL shares reached a high of Rs 347, marking an increase of 3.11 percent or Rs 10.45.
This recent rally comes after a challenging year for HPCL, with the stock having tumbled approximately 15 percent year-to-date. However, the easing of crude oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading below $70 per barrel, has buoyed market sentiment.
Global brokerage Macquarie is backing HPCL over other oil marketing companies, pointing to a healthy earnings outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025. The firm has revised its target price for HPCL from Rs 380 to Rs 410 per share, which indicates a potential upside of 22 percent from the closing price before the announcement.
Macquarie’s positive posture towards HPCL contrasts with its views toward other players in the industry. The brokerage outlined its preference hierarchy for oil marketing companies (OMCs) as follows: HPCL takes the top spot, followed by Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL).
According to Macquarie, the influence of Russian crude sourcing and pricing on OMCs is likely to be minimal, giving the firms a sense of stability amid global market fluctuations. The report asserts that the near-term outlook for HPCL is encouraging, despite two notable factors serving as potential price drags: capacity expansion and the under-recovery costs associated with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
Additionally, BPCL has also received an upgrade from Macquarie, with its target rising to Rs 320—a gain of 18 percent potential—while IOCL was upgraded to a target price of Rs 155, reflecting an expected upside of 20 percent.
This strategic shift in target pricing underlines the confidence analysts have in HPCL’s performance and its resilience in the context of fluctuating oil prices. Macquarie's assessment reflects a recovery sentiment within the industry, paving the way for more robust investment strategies as oil prices stabilize.
The increasing share prices of HPCL reflect a broader trend within the oil and gas sector, signifying potential for growth amidst general market unease. Investors are keen on leveraging these positive forecasts to optimize their portfolios ahead of the upcoming quarterly results.
This comeback in HPCL’s stock positions the company as a focal point in discussions about energy investments moving forward, particularly as analysts look to capitalize on shifts in the global oil landscape. Observers will be keeping a close watch on HPCL as the quarter's earnings approach, looking to gauge whether the anticipated rebound will translate into significant financial performance.
