Macau’s casino industry is grappling with mixed signals in March 2025 as it navigates fluctuating gaming revenues amid concerns about economic recovery. According to a Monday memo from Citigroup, Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 23 days of March was estimated at MOP14.6 billion (approximately US$1.82 billion), reflecting a daily run rate of MOP635 million.
Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that, specifically for the week of March 17 to 23, the daily GGR averaged MOP643 million. This figure marks a 3% increase compared to the previous week’s daily GGR of MOP621 million. However, it highlights the ongoing struggle as VIP volumes have reportedly dropped between 8 to 10 percent month-on-month and mass GGR fell by approximately 7 to 9 percent.
“Based on industry sources, Macau GGR for the first 23 days of March likely reached circa MOP14.6 billion,” the analysts stated, indicating that the daily run rate reflects a year-on-year trend that is relatively flat compared to March 2024, which stood at MOP629 million.
Forecasts for March 2025 from Citigroup maintain the GGR estimate unchanged at MOP19.5 billion, which implies an average GGR of MOP613 million per day for the rest of the month. This total potentially positions GGR at about 75% of the comparable level observed in 2019, prior to the pandemic’s impact.
Compounding these challenges, Macquarie Equity Research previously estimated that month-end GGR could range between MOP18.8 billion and MOP19.7 billion, projecting a minor decline of 1% from the previous year and a 2% decrease month-over-month. These numbers underline a cautious outlook on a gaming sector still finding its footing in a post-pandemic world.
Macau’s Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai has expressed serious concerns regarding potential fiscal shortfalls throughout 2025. During recent discussions, he underscored the complexity and volatility of the domestic economy and emphasized the necessity for proactive measures. “He called for collective efforts to stimulate economic recovery and promote industry diversification to address domestic imbalances,” noted officials as part of their response to the slowing post-pandemic recovery.
The casino sector has historically been a significant contributor to Macau's economy. Just in January, casinos generated nearly MOP7.2 billion, accounting for 85.7% of the month's total revenue of nearly MOP8.4 billion. However, this marked a 2% decline from the same period last year. Total revenue, which includes capital income, was reported at MOP8.4 billion, coupled with recurring expenses and other costs amounting to MOP4.7 billion, leading to a budget surplus of around MOP3.68 billion—a notable 32% decline year-on-year.
In the face of these figures, the gaming industry's ability to adapt and innovate while managing domestic economic challenges will be crucial moving forward. As analysts continue to monitor these developments, the focus remains on how Macau can effectively foster recovery in its gaming sector while diversifying its economy.
The situation calls for a careful assessment of market strategies and industry practices, giving rise to potential shifts in operations that could redefine the landscape of Macau’s renowned casinos.
