The search for sustainable alternatives to petroleum has driven research on biofuels, with a focus on those derived from organic biomass. This study centers on macaúba (Acrocomia aculeata), a promising oilseed for biodiesel production. Advances in cultivation techniques and the mapping of climatically suitable areas are fundamental to consolidates the use of this species in the energy sector. This work aimed to utilize predictive modeling with the CLIMEX software to assess the current and future climatic suitability of macaúba in the backdrop of climate change. Data on the global distribution of macaúba, growth and stress parameters, as well as climatic variables, were collected. The modeling was conducted based on the A2 SRES scenario for the present, 2050, 2080, and 2100, including the generation of the Weekly Growth Index. Results indicated high suitability in tropical regions, particularly Brazil and Indonesia, but future projections highlight significant challenges due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall. This study provides a perspective to guide sustainable policies.
The growing concern about the environmental impacts resulting from the indiscriminate use of oil has instigated the search for sustainable and innovative alternatives. Despite being the main source for several applications, its high potential for greenhouse gas emission raises alarms. Biofuels are heralded as promising renewable solutions to mitigate negative impacts associated with oil. Among biofuels, biodiesel stands out as it is produced from animal or vegetable fats through transesterification. Utilization of biodiesel not only reduces dependence on oil but also offers economic advantages. Macaúba, particularly, boasts oil yields of 6.2 tonnes per hectare, which can rival palm oil and significantly outpace soybean yields, making it notable for sustainable energy transition.
Yet, there’s more than just promise—climate impacts on plant growth are foundational. Predictive modeling with tools like CLIMEX is necessary for assessing the suitability of macaúba's cultivation conditions under climate change influences. Data collection encompassed occurrence points from several global databases providing insights on A. aculeata's distribution. Findings indicate around 14.4% of the world’s surface is highly suitable for its growth.
Key results showed climatic suitability primarily lies within Brazil and Indonesia. The ecological niche model indicates not only areas where the species thrives currently, but also projections for 2050 paint worrying pictures due to anticipated changes. By the end of the century, these forecasts suggest reductions in ideal cultivation areas primarily influenced by rising global temperatures and declines in annual rainfall. The results align with the need to develop policies aimed at adapting to climate change, reinforcing macaúba's role as part of the solution.
Peering closer at the climatic parameters, macaúba thrives best between 15 °C and 35 °C. The importance of temperatures within 20 °C to 25 °C is fundamental to ensuring high quality fruits. For seed germination, the optimal temperature range falls between 25 °C to 35 °C, aligning with the best moisture conditions typically observed between 1100mm to 2000mm of annual rainfall. The study's projections dictate major shifts can result from climatic changes impacting biodiesel production.
Moving forward, it is evident macaúba stands as a pivotal species for biodiesel goals; the biodiversity of tropical climates facilitates its broad potential. Brazil's substantial biodiesel consumption comforts its suitability for macaúba cultivation. Nonetheless, adaptive measures are imperative. The intertwining of climate change factors with macaúba agriculture shape future strategies urging researchers and policymakers alike to prioritize sustainability. Undoubtedly, meeting the dual challenges of energy demand and climate resilience is no small undertaking, but macaúba may very well sit at the intersection of these solutions.
This study delivers insights built on predictive modeling and hypothesis to confront energetic demands, showcasing how macaúba can realistically pave the way for biodiesel production even with impending climatic adversities. The essence of sufficient climatic data interlaced with ecological awareness stands as engraved communication to drive future policies and practices toward more sustainable energy resources.