On January 29, 2025, the M23 rebels, backed by Rwandan forces, made significant progress by capturing Goma, the largest city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), prompting urgent calls for ceasefire from international bodies.
The rebels have shifted their focus southward, aiming to capture Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. This strategic move raises fears of broader regional conflict as the group attempts to strengthen its control over the region’s lucrative mineral resources.
M23's recent offensive showcases their capability to exert control over strategically important cities. Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, acknowledging the gravity of the situation, stated during a national address, "The presence of thousands of Rwandan soldiers on our soil... is leading to an escalation with unpredictable consequences." The international community, including the United Nations, has voiced concerns, urging for immediate action to halt hostilities and to negotiate peace.
The backdrop of the conflict dates back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, which resulted in mass migrations and long-standing ethnic tensions within the DRC. Since the resurgence of violence, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced, leading to humanitarian crises.
After securing Goma, the M23 has expanded its push down the western side of Lake Kivu. According to sources, they are advancing toward Kavumu, which houses the airport servicing Bukavu. This advance is met by resistance from Congolese army troops, supported by Burundian forces who are on heightened alert as the situation escalates.
Sources indicate fears are mounting of the conflict devolving akin to the devastating regional wars from 1996 to 2003. An African diplomat remarked, "The risk of regionalisation of the conflict is real," hinting at the potential for broader military engagements involving neighboring nations.
Despite continuous calls for peace, the realities on the ground reveal M23 consolidates its power not only militarily but also through local governance structures. Amidst sporadic gunfire and the visible aftermath of violence—corpses lying uncollected and services overwhelmed—Goma residents expressed feelings of dual citizenship. One local lamented, "It feels like we are in a dual nation. We are in Congo and at the same time, in Rwanda." This highlights the sentiments of many caught between the territorial disputes and political machinations.
Further south, tensions in Bukavu have led residents to stock up on essentials, fearing imminent conflict. One Bukavu resident, Helene, shared her anxiety: "Sometimes gunshots ring out... This also contributes to reinforcing the psychosis," indicating the psychological toll the conflict has on the local populace.
The international response has seen global powers, including the United States, Britain, and France, pressure Rwandan President Paul Kagame to withdraw support for M23. The diplomatic maneuvering seems insufficient against the backdrop of advancing rebel forces. Kigali has, on the other hand, vehemently denied allegations of direct military involvement and has framed its actions as self-defense against the threats posed by Hutu militias.
Reports continue to emerge about the involvement of other regional players, as Burundian troops were confirmed to be aiding the Congolese army. An official acknowledged the deployment of thousands of soldiers who mobilized to combat the advancing rebels. This situation escalates fears of inter-state conflicts reigniting old wounds from previous wars.
Overall, the continuing violence has heightened insecurity and instability within the DRC, significantly impacting neighboring countries and the broader region. With humanitarian agencies warning of dire conditions for civilians, the situation remains precarious, with roots entrenched deeply within historical grievances, ethnic tensions, and the struggle for control over natural resources.
These challenges necessitate urgent international attention, as the plight of those caught within this conflict grows increasingly dire. The world watches with bated breath as the M23 makes its next move toward Bukavu, with both humanitarian and geopolitical stakes at play.