Brazil's President Luiz I nácio Lula da Silva is facing unprecedented disapproval ratings across several key states, following a recent poll by Quaest released on February 26, 2025. The survey, which assessed public sentiment across eight of Brazil's most populous regions, reveals a dramatic drop in approval for Lula's administration, particularly noteworthy because it marks the first time his disapproval exceeds approval ratings, especially in traditionally supportive areas.
The poll indicates staggering disapproval figures, with over 60% of voters expressing dissatisfaction with Lula's government state by state. São Paulo, the largest electorate, shows 69% disapproving of Lula, up from 55% just three months earlier. This shift highlights Lula's declining popularity; the proportion of people who approve of his administration has dipped significantly from 43% to 29% during this time.
Similar sentiments echo throughout the states of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, where disapproval stands at 63% and 64%, respectively. The situation worsens for Lula, particularly evident in Goiás, where 70% of its population rated his administration unfavorably. The survey also points out how the approval ratings have sharply decreased by 17 to 19 points across Bahia and Pernambuco—states traditionally regarded as strongholds for Lula.
This survey establishes significant holes in Lula's support, showing how the economic conditions heavily influence public perception. According to the poll, over 45% of respondents across all states believe the economy has worsened over the past year. The situation is dire, especially as the cost of living continues to rise, with at least 90% of those surveyed reporting increases in food prices over the last month. Alarmingly, the figure spikes to 96% among respondents from Goiás and Paraná.
Lula's administration has been grappling with various issues, and economic dissatisfaction is exacerbated by rising unemployment perceptions. For example, 53% of participants from São Paulo claim it has become more challenging to find work, and this sentiment is even stronger among 67% of those surveyed from Rio de Janeiro.
Security remains another pressing concern for voters, particularly among states like Rio de Janeiro and Bahia, where violence is cited as the main issue by 71% and 44% of respondents, respectively. These figures symbolize not only dissatisfaction with the administration but also signal rising tensions among citizens who feel their safety is at risk.
The broader political response to these alarming ratings has prompted the Lula administration to strategize and implement measures aimed at regaining public trust. Recent initiatives include the unlocking of the FGTS (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço for employees dismissed since 2020) and increased funding for social programs like the Farmácia Popular, aimed at easing the burden on less fortunate Brazilians, especially students burdened by educational expenses.
Political moves to shore up alliances have surged, with attempts to bolster support from Congress through ministerial reforms aimed at accommodating Centrão parties. The increasing disapproval rates undeniably reflect voters' demands for change and actionable governance moving forward as illustrated by 78% of the respondents calling for different management styles from Lula.
Analyzing the overall political picture, the survey results foreshadow potential challenges for Lula's reelection campaign planned for 2026. While his popularity is faltering, positive sentiments can still be noted from Bahia and Pernambuco as the president remains favored over former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently facing electoral disqualification.
Beliefs about the country’s direction linger under the shadow of these dreadful ratings, with 63% of respondents across the surveyed states believing Brazil is headed on the wrong path. This continuing perception manifests significant pressures on Lula's governance strategy and may pave the way for more monumental changes needed to align with public sentiment.
Lula's crisis of approval reflects broader concerns about economic management, public safety, and overall voter trust—the trifecta of issues now plaguing his government as electoral aspirations loom on the horizon. Should these trends continue unchecked, the consequences could drastically reshape the framework surrounding Lula's political ambitions and Brazil's future governance.