Lula's Approval Ratings Drop Sharply According to Recent Quaest Poll
Recent polling has shown a concerning trend for Brazilian President Luiz Ignácio Lula da Silva, as disapproval for his government has now surpassed approval ratings across several key states, historically known as strongholds for his Workers' Party (PT). According to the latest survey conducted by Quaest, dissatisfaction among the electorate is palpable, with significant majorities indicating they disapprove of his administration.
The poll, carried out between February 19 and 23, 2025, sampled over 10,000 voters across eight states, representing 62% of the Brazilian electorate. The results indicated troubling numbers, with disapproval exceeding 60% among voters in states such as São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Goiás. Notably, both Bahia and Pernambuco, which have traditionally supported Lula, are now witnessing disapproval rates of 51% and 50%, respectively—a significant shift reflecting growing voter discontent.
Observers noted the stark change when analyzing the state-by-state breakdown of the poll. For example, the disapproval rating for Lula reaches 69% among voters in São Paulo, followed closely by Paraná at 68%. The stark fact is this: Lula's approval has fallen drastically by over 15 points compared to the last survey conducted, as evidenced by the results, including disapproval rates at 66% and 63% respectively for Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais.
The survey results are particularly alarming for Lula's allies, who have hinted at the need for significant governmental changes swiftly to stem the rising tide of dissatisfaction. "The findings were alarming, calling for immediate attention," conveyed leaders within the PT. Critical issues cited by constituents include dissatisfaction with the economy and the rising cost of living, with food prices being particularly contentious. Reports suggest the general mood among voters is one of negativity, with many believing the economy has worsened.
According to the survey, individual state evaluations showed widespread agreement among the electorate on the need for government to take different approaches. This sentiment was echoed significantly, with 88% of respondents from Rio Grande do Sul believing Lula should implement changes to his governance style, reflecting widespread discontent. Such findings illuminate how national perceptions of the administration are increasingly negative, as people feel left behind amid rising costs of basic necessities.
The poll results also indicate Lula's shifting standing against potential challengers for future elections. Notably, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) has emerged as a formidable competitor, particularly evident as he leads Lula in favorability within key regions such as São Paulo, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul. "The disapproval rate of Lula has increased significantly, surpassing 60% among voters," reported Genial/Quaest, putting additional pressure on Lula's administration.
Despite the downturn, it's noteworthy to mention Lula's position among voters remains strong, with him still leading against other potential candidates, including ex-president Jair Bolsonaro and local politicians. For example, even though Lula faces tough scenarios, he leads comfortably among voters in traditionally supportive states like Bahia and Pernambuco, where he still retains substantial support percentages.
The coming months pose significant challenges for Lula, who must focus on addressing voter concerns and economic issues to possibly recover his standing before the next presidential election. Allies within the PT warn of the political ramifications if the current trends continue, emphasizing urgency for corrective measures to re-engage the electorate. Says one PT leader, "The survey shows the need for Lula to change course urgently." It's clear the stakes are high as the Lula administration navigates through trying times with the 2026 elections on the horizon.