After more than three decades at the helm of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko has announced he will not seek another term as president. The revelation, made during an interview with Time and published on August 8, 2025, marks a potentially significant turning point for the country, though many in the opposition and international community remain skeptical of what, if anything, will change for ordinary Belarusians.
Lukashenko, who was sworn in for his seventh term in March 2025, has been a fixture in Belarusian politics since 1994. Over the years, he has become one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies, offering unwavering support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and allowing Belarusian territory to be used for the 2022 invasion. As Time reported, Lukashenko dismissed accusations of authoritarianism, declaring, “These days, of course, I’m far from being Soviet, but Soviet principles, the best ones, live inside me. Why should I reject them? Just like the Americans do not reject their history, it’s the same with me. That’s why we have this friendship with Russia, the closest kind of cooperation.”
His friendship with Russia has not been without controversy. Western governments and human rights groups have pointed to Belarus’s role as a staging ground for Russian troops and a stockpile for Russian ammunition. Lukashenko has also made clear his disdain for the European Union, telling Time, “Western Europe can get lost. Putin can disregard them. In this situation, if we reach a deal with the Americans, the Europeans won’t have any way out of it.”
But it is Lukashenko’s handling of domestic dissent that has drawn the most ire. In 2020, following an election widely viewed as rigged, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in protest. According to RFE/RL, the government responded with beatings, arrests, and torture; several protesters died, and approximately 65,000 were imprisoned. The crackdown hasn’t let up. On August 6, 2025, authorities conducted another wave of mass arrests targeting protesters both inside Belarus and abroad.
The repression has forced many Belarusians into exile, with political rallies in cities like Warsaw and Vilnius now commonplace. Exiled opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, speaking at an online briefing for the Center for European Policy Analysis, said, “Belarus was taken hostage. Ahead of the anniversary, the crackdown has only intensified. The regime isn’t just punishing dissent. It’s trying actually to erase the memory of 2020.”
Tsikhanouskaya herself has become a symbol of resistance. After being forced to flee the country in 2020 under threats to her children, she was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for “treason with the aim of seizing power.” The campaign against her has continued: On August 6, Belarusian state television aired a report alleging that she received an envelope containing 15,000 euros, which she denied asking for. “I was under tremendous emotional pressure at the time. I wasn’t ready for this and didn’t know how to behave in such situations. I didn’t tell anyone about that ill-fated envelope because I was ashamed that I had it,” Tsikhanouskaya told pro-opposition news outlet Zerkalo.
Yet the regime’s efforts to stifle opposition are not limited to prominent figures. Amnesty International reported this week that more than 1,100 political prisoners remain in Belarus, with about 330 released early since 2020. Vyasna, an exiled Belarusian human rights group, noted that in June 2025 alone, while 14 political prisoners were pardoned, 29 others were newly jailed. The government’s approach, it seems, is to release a few while arresting many more.
Among the rare releases was that of Syarhey Tsikhanouski, Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, who was freed on June 21, 2025. After his release, he voiced concern over the state of the opposition. “During my last days of freedom in 2020, people were lining up for hours to sign petitions. I felt like I had wings. Now I came out with the same energy and determination, but I see that many Belarusians abroad are tired. They’ve spent five years surviving, working multiple jobs. I understand, but for those of us coming out of prison, it’s painful to feel that the fire has gone out,” he told RFE/RL in Vilnius.
The challenges for exiles are mounting. As Amnesty International highlighted, many Belarusians who fled after 2020 now face legal limbo, unable to renew their passports or obtain residency documents in countries like Poland. Some have even considered returning home, believing that statutes of limitations on minor offenses might protect them. But as one exile told RFE/RL, “They find something new to charge you with. They’ll find something to jail you for: subscribing to ‘extremist’ online media, making a donation (to a banned group), or clicking ‘like’ somewhere.”
Inside Belarus, the landscape has changed dramatically. Lawtrend, a Belarusian monitoring group, reports that nearly 2,000 civil society organizations—including NGOs, labor unions, and foundations—have been shut down since 2020. Over 40 media outlets, including RFE/RL, have been labeled “extremist formations,” effectively criminalizing their work. In July 2024, Yury Drakakhrust, a journalist based in Prague, was sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison on false charges. In a recent article, Drakakhrust described the current state of the opposition as “depressing,” noting, “Tsikhanouskaya was accepted by senior Western officials. But this happened when memories were fresh of Minsk streets filled with protesters. But it’s been a long time since there was even a shadow of protest on the streets of Minsk.”
Still, the opposition is not giving up. Over the weekend of August 9, 2025, exiled Belarusians held rallies in cities across Europe and North America, hoping to rekindle the spirit of 2020. Tsikhanouskaya sees Belarus at a crossroads, with its fate tied closely to the outcome of the war in Ukraine. “If peace is made on Ukraine’s terms, it could weaken Putin and Lukashenko with him. That could be our moment to push for change. But if the deal favors Putin, Belarus risks becoming a consolation prize, meaning losing our sovereignty for decades to come,” she said.
Meanwhile, Lukashenko continues to project an image of strength and stability at home. In June 2023, he presented himself as a peacemaker by mediating during Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion against Russian military generals, proposing that Prigozhin take exile in Belarus rather than face Putin’s wrath. Yet, for many Belarusians, such gestures do little to mask the reality of ongoing repression. The White House’s February 2025 success in securing the release of three political prisoners, including an American citizen and a Belarusian journalist, was a rare bright spot in an otherwise bleak landscape.
As the fifth anniversary of the 2020 protests passes, Belarus remains in the grip of a government determined to erase dissent. Whether Lukashenko’s promise not to seek another term signals real change or is simply another maneuver remains to be seen. For now, the struggle for Belarus’s future continues, both at home and in exile, against formidable odds.
