Lorenzo Sonego and Stan Wawrinka are set to face off at the Australian Open 2025, with their match scheduled for January 14 at 6:00 PM local time on Court 6.
This highly anticipated first-round matchup marks the second time the two players will meet on the ATP circuit. Wawrinka leads their head-to-head record with one win to Sonego's none, following their match at the Umag tournament where the Swiss player triumphed with scores of 6-3, 6-4.
Sonego, currently ranked No. 55, has had a mixed start to his 2025 season, holding a record of 2 wins and 2 losses. His most recent match saw him exit early against Alex Michelsen at the Auckland tournament. On the other hand, Wawrinka, whose ranking has plummeted to No. 156, has yet to play any matches this year after finishing 2024 with a disappointing 12-20 record.
This matchup is particularly compelling, as both players enter the Australian Open with different aspirations. Sonego aims to build on recent form and make his mark by advancing past the first round, having previously made it past Daniel Evans last year. Meanwhile, Wawrinka looks to redeem himself after suffering first-round exits at major tournaments, including the Australian Open, where he lost to Adrian Mannarino last year.
Interestingly, statistical models have projected Sonego as the favorite to win this encounter. According to Dimers' predictive analytics model, Sonego has been awarded a 64% probability of winning compared to Wawrinka's 36%. Greg Butyn, Dimers' data analyst, noted, "We have analyzed the latest data and conducted 10,000 simulations for Tuesday's Sonego-Wawrinka match." These simulations reflect Sonego's strengths on hard courts, where he has had more favorable results than Wawrinka recently.
Betting odds currently favor Sonego with bookmakers, where he is priced at $1.40 to win, with Wawrinka trailing behind at $3.00 on the same betting platform. These odds suggest confidence among punters and analysts alike about Sonego's chances, especially on serve, where he's believed to hold the upper hand.
Even so, Wawrinka is not to be underestimated. With his wealth of experience and previous Grand Slam success, including his Australian Open victory back in 2014, he knows how to handle pressure. Many enthusiasts are eager to see if he can pull off an upset against the odds.
The match will be accessible for streaming fans, available on platforms including bet365—although viewing it for free will require users to have created or recently funded accounts. For fans located outside Australia, Eurosport is broadcasting the match, ensuring its availability to European viewers.
For those interested, the match is not just about individual accolades, but also impacts future rounds. Should Sonego succeed, he could potentially face either Andrey Rublev or Joao Fonseca, with both players providing contrasting challenges. Conversely, if Wawrinka manages to win, it reignites his quest for redemption after years of fluctuative performances.
Experts predict this match will not only be thrilling due to the skill set both players display, but also for the narrative arcs attached to their respective journeys. Sonego, the rising star aiming to solidify his reputation, and Wawrinka, the veteran striving to reclaim former glory, will add layers to this encounter.
So, tennis fans, mark your calendars! The battle between Lorenzo Sonego and Stan Wawrinka promises to deliver exciting tennis and perhaps some surprises as both players reach for victory at the Australian Open 2025.