Liverpool will be atop the Premier League this Christmas following their impressive 6-3 victory against Tottenham Hotspur, marking the 21st occasion they have led England's top flight on December 25. While this record achievement is commendable, it also raises questions about the historical performance of teams at the top during the festive period. Liverpool fans likely recall bitter memories; being Christmas Number One does not guarantee league title success. Historically, only 11 out of the 21 times the club has been top on Christmas have they gone on to snag the championship. The Premier League era shows even harsher statistics—over its history, just half of the teams leading at Christmas eventually secured the title. Indeed, recent seasons highlight this trend poignantly, as Arsenal learned last year when they faltered after being six points clear of Manchester City on Christmas Day.
The dichotomy of festive leadership is particularly stark with Manchester City. Historically, the team has demonstrated resilience, often coming back to clinch the title even when trailing during the Christmas season. For example, City was famously eight points behind Liverpool during the 2020/21 season yet bounced back to triumph. Currently, City sits seventh, amid managerial challenges and six defeats from their last eight league matches, refocusing their ambition on securing top four status rather than just the championship.
At Arsenal, the need for goal-scoring prowess has become increasingly pressing. Manager Mikel Arteta faces scrutiny as his squad continues to mimic the identity of "nearly teams"—a label previously affixed to clubs failing to convert potential titles. They need to find their own equivalent of Robin van Persie, the transformative striker who led Manchester United to title glory after departing from the Emirates. This necessity grows as injuries to pivotal players like Bukayo Saka and Raheem Sterling leave the team scrambling for offensive firepower.
Arsenal's existing top scorer, Kai Havertz, has only netted six times this season, placing him joint-14th for the Golden Boot—a far cry from the standards set by league leaders. Liverpool boasts Mohamed Salah with 15 league goals, serving as a reminder of what prolific finishing can achieve. Had Arteta secured a proven goal scorer during the summer transfer window, Arsenal might have fared differently against teams like Brighton, Fulham, and others where they dropped points.
Compounding Arsenal's precarious position, other teams have effectively capitalized on their situation. For example, Wolves recently secured their first win under new manager Vítor Pereira, defeating Leicester City 3-0. Meanwhile, they face consistent defensive struggles, shipping 25 goals already this season, including league-high set-piece goals. These defensive vulnerabilities could detract from their optimism heading toward the new year.
On the other hand, Manchester United is experiencing turbulence. Manager Ruben Amorim's tenure has come under fire, with only two wins from their last six Premier League fixtures. They too struggle defensively, with 41% of their conceded goals stemming from set-piece situations—an alarming trend this early in the campaign.
Despite the malaise surrounding Arsenal and United, bright spots exist within the league. David Raya, Arsenal's goalkeeper, captured the Premier League Golden Glove award for the 2023/24 season, ending with 16 clean sheets. His performances underscored Arsenal's overall defensive strength, which is often overshadowed by their offensive shortcomings. Other challengers are rising as well; Andre Onana of Manchester United and Matz Sels from Nottingham Forest present surprising competition this season.
Looking forward, the January transfer window looms heavy over multiple clubs, particularly Arsenal. Arteta's approaches toward new strikers and the profitable acquisition opportunities shaping up could define their season—regaining expert consensus about the need for experienced goal-scoring talent. The pressure to act swiftly and decisively grows as the likes of Arsenal, Wolves, and the inconsistency of Manchester United force them to reassess their project objectives.
Continuing down this seasonal path, the forthcoming fixtures will crystalize these complex dynamics. Liverpool's position at the top is enviable, but whether they can convert the title as Christmas leaders remains uncertain. Fans of the club will recall the cautionary tales surrounding temporary leadership on the festive table. Meanwhile, Arsenal's pursuit of the right striker could either make or break their campaign, transforming their identity from merely contenders to champions.
