When it rains, it pours. And as the effects of climate change creep ever more aggressively onto the weather radar, it seems storms are getting more intense almost everywhere. Essentially, as the planet warms, the atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases, which means not just more rain, but also more thunderstorms and - you guessed it - lightning strikes. With temperatures climbing and weather extremes becoming the new normal, communities and organizations are scrambling to reckon with this growing threat.
Take, for example, what's happening over at Mutton’s Mill, a historic windmill located on the flat wetland of the Norfolk Broads in eastern England. Andrew Farrell, from the Broads Authority, has taken it upon himself to protect this 160-year-old structure from potential disaster. “These mills stick out as perfect conductors,” he noted, admitting his fear of lightning setting the old wooden mill ablaze. To mitigate this potential threat, he installed conducting rods, which are positioned to divert any lightning strikes right down to rods embedded safely below ground. While his immediate concern is the well-being of the mill, it brings raised eyebrows on a larger scale—are we witnessing more electrical storms because of climate change?
Farrell’s anecdotal experiences echo observations made by scientists. According to the UK’s Royal Meteorological Society, as global temperatures rise, the air can retain about 7% more moisture for every degree of warming. This scenario creates the perfect breeding ground for thunderstorms and, by extension, lightning strikes. Experts have taken notice as some areas report increases in storm activity, and organizations across the board— from Scottish Water to the US military—are starting to weigh the risks seriously.
But it’s not just across the pond where lightning is drawing attention. Back on U.S. soil, the weather-related risks are spurring researchers to look closer at familiar phenomena with fresh eyes. Mace Bentley, a professor from James Madison University, has been examining the link between urban pollution and lightning strikes. He noticed something interesting: between 2006 and 2020, rising pollution levels coincided with more frequent lightning strikes, particularly months laden with heat and humidity.
Bentley's research highlighted how pollution acts as what he called “an accelerant” for thunderstorm activity. It’s not just about pollution causing storms; rather, it’s about what happens during thunderstorms already in formation. Pollution appears to electrify these storms, creating conditions ripe for more lightning. And as urban centers grow and develop, so do the risks they carry— resulting in lightning strikes happening more frequently downwind from those cities. Bentley's findings could provide key insights—and some unsettling correlations between our actions and the weather phenomena we face.
While these scientists are busy cataloging the effects of pollution, another alarming trend is surfacing. Climate change doesn't just increase the number of thunderstorms; it appears to also influence the severity of these storms. Starting around 2014, researchers like David Romps from UC Berkeley have begun forecasting significant increases—potentially up to 50% more lightning strikes over the next century, fueled by warming temperatures.
The potential consequences of this increasing thunderstorm activity can be felt far and wide, touching everything from agriculture to insurance claims. For businesses, it's no small matter, either. Tim Harger from the Lightning Protection Institute described incidents where businesses have lost hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars after lightning strikes. Anecdotes like these paint a vivid picture: lightning isn't just a freak occurrence; it's a financial worry for many.
Further distancing the issue, the Insurance Information Institute reported this past June noticeable increases—over 30%—in lightning-related insurance claims compared to the previous year. With overall storm expenses swelling, owners are likely shifting their focus toward protective measures, as the climate impression amplifies risks.
This surge isn’t falling on deaf ears. Building owners, local governments, and even the military are getting proactive, weighing options to mitigate the risks associated with heightened lightning activity. Caroline Baxter, senior advisor at the Council on Strategic Risks, highlighted military installations throughout states like Louisiana and Georgia—home to major bases—beginning to factor these imminent climate risks, including lightning, more seriously.
And it doesn’t end there. Experts from the aviation sector are raising concerns over possible disruptions lightning may cause to flight schedules and radar operations as storms become increasingly frequent. Jasenka Rakas of UC Berkeley, who specializes in the effects of lightning on airports, added to the clarion call about potential challenges on the horizon for air traffic. With lightning infractions becoming more common and economically pertinent, it's fair to ask how prepared these infrastructures are for the changing tides.
It’s no secret lightning strikes have been viewed as random occurrences—statistically many think of them as once-in-a-lifetime events. Yet worldwide, lightning strikes around the globe happen 3 million times daily, spanning multiple climates and environments. This constant threat is amplified as we collectively face the realities of climate change. And as these changes take hold, stakeholders must prioritize adjustments and adaptations to brace against what has now become every-man's weather phenomenon.
Through Bentley's findings, Farrell’s project, and corporate concerns about rising costs, it’s clear conversations about storm preparedness and response need to evolve with the shifting climate. The balance of forces around us is shifting, and taking weather risks seriously may be the only course of action left to navigate the stormy days ahead.
