As elections loom closer, Canada’s Liberal Party is witnessing a remarkable resurgence in voter support, largely attributed to the recent leadership change from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney. According to a Leger Marketing poll conducted between March 14 and 16, 2025, the Liberals have surged to 42% support among decided voters, placing them ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party, which stands at 39%. This trend is supported by another poll from the Angus Reid Institute, published on March 17, which similarly rates the Liberals at 42% and the Conservatives at 37%. Just three months ago, however, support for the Liberals sat at a dismal 16%, highlighting the dramatic turnaround in their fortunes following Trudeau’s resignation in January.
The shifting political landscape marks a clear response to Carney’s economic background and the public’s increasing concern over U.S. President Donald Trump’s threatening comments regarding Canada—particularly his assertions about tariffs and the suggestion that Canada could be the 51st U.S. state. “Mark Carney is the right person at the right time, in many ways,” noted Sebastien Dallaire, executive vice president at Leger, reflecting on the Liberals’ shift in public perception.
Carney’s immediate rise to power came swiftly after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation on December 16, 2024, stemming from a public spat with Trudeau. This pivotal moment led to Trudeau’s announcement of his resignation shortly afterward, thus setting the stage for Carney's rapid ascension in the party, where he triumphed with over 85% of votes in the leadership contest. Following this context, political analysts suggest that if current trends hold, the Liberals could see a majority in the House of Commons—a feat not achieved since Trudeau’s last election win in 2015.
Carney now faces the challenge of maintaining this momentum as a recent poll shows the Conservatives have their own messaging strategy aimed at the domestic economy. Trudeau’s ousting came after nearly a decade in power, and with a volatile political atmosphere, experts are watching closely whether Carney can transform his early lead into concrete electoral advantage.
Despite the optimism surrounding Carney’s leadership, challenges remain. The Liberal Party has only nominated a fraction of their candidates ahead of the expected election call. As of March 18, 2025, they have officially nominated 184 out of the 343 necessary candidates. This puts them behind the Conservatives and the NDP in candidate nominations, further complicating their campaign efforts. Jamie Aitchison, a former director with the Conservative Party, suggested that this slow nomination process may be linked to the transition period after the leadership race.
Professors of political science, Cristine De Clercy and Melanee Thomas, emphasize that candidate recruitment is a crucial component for the Liberals moving forward. De Clercy noted, “It’s difficult to recruit candidates when you’re not sure if the incumbent is leaving or not,” while Thomas remarked on the unique situation of the Liberals, who had been full of uncertainty during the leadership change.
Voter sentiment is also tied closely with perceptions of economic stability and relations with the United States. The Ipsos poll from March 14 to 17 revealed that 45% of Canadians believe Carney is the best suited to manage the economy compared to Poilievre’s 31%. A significant portion of the electorate also expressed confidence in Carney’s ability to handle U.S. relations amid ongoing threats from Trump. However, Carney's relatively low name recognition among general voters means there is still opportunity for his opponents to define him as the campaign heats up.
The NDP and other parties are lagging far behind; as of the recent surveys, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois trail significantly, with the NDP polling around just 9%-10%. As the political environment appears to be reshaping itself, voter engagement will be pivotal in determining whether Carney can consolidate and realize his party’s recent gains.
Furthermore, the political stakes are high, as Parliament remains prorogued until March 24, and speculation continues regarding when a formal election call will take place. Liberal spokespeople, like Anita Anand, have communicated that the party is committed to the electoral process, emphasizing the need for a
