With an election call expected within days, the political scene in Canada is heating up, buoyed by shifting voter sentiments and unprecedented polling results. A new National Post-Leger poll reveals the Liberals leading the Conservatives by three points, capturing the support of 42 percent of Canadians compared to the 39 percent for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre.
This marked improvement for Mark Carney’s Liberals showcases their stunning recovery following a year where they were significantly trailing the Conservatives, who previously seemed poised for what could have been termed a supermajority. The polling data reflects not just numbers, but changing political dynamics fueled by recent developments.
Key to this turnaround was the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau early this January, paving the way for Carney’s leadership. His election seems to have invigorated the party at a time when external threats, particularly from U.S. President Donald Trump, have sparked increased nationalistic sentiments among Canadians.
“It’s the cherry on the sundae that's started back in mid-January,” says Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger’s central Canada operations. His viewpoint highlights the remarkable comeback the Liberals have experienced over these past weeks.
Contrast this rise with the performance of the New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jagmeet Singh, which languishes at just nine percent support nationally. “That’s historically low,” says Enns, indicating how the progressive vote appears to be funneling toward the Liberals, giving them the momentum needed heading toward the election.
The Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, garners just five percent support. Nationally, the polling data reveals some pointed insights about party leaders’ public perception. Poilievre faces significant challenges, with 49 percent of Canadians viewing him unfavorably, compared to the 39 percent who have favorable views. Carney, on the other hand, enjoys a net favorability rating of 46 percent, with only 28 percent expressing unfavorability toward him.
Interestingly, there remains a notable segment of the electorate—28 percent—who do not yet know enough about Carney to form an opinion. This contrasts sharply with the 12 percent of people unsure about Poilievre, indicating the potential volatility surrounding public perception of Carney.
“There’s risk... be careful who gets hold of the paintbrush because they start filling it in the way they want to,” Enns cautions, illustrating the importance of shaping narratives as election strategies evolve. Any campaign to define Carney to the public could dramatically alter his favorability moving forward.
On substantive issues, Carney appears to have the upper hand: 45 percent of voters believe he is best positioned to grow Canada’s economy, as opposed to 31 percent favoring Poilievre. When it concerns managing relations with Trump, Carney holds 42 percent support against Poilievre’s 29 percent.
While Carney leads significantly on the issue of climate change—with 40 percent favoring him compared to just 13 percent for Poilievre—voter sentiment becomes more mixed when discussing affordability and government spending. Carney holds 37 percent favorability on making life affordable, slightly edging out Poilievre's 32 percent. Yet, when it involves reducing government spending or boosting the Canadian Armed Forces, Poilievre pulls slightly ahead.
Regionally, the polling indicates varied support levels. Atlantic Canada seems to favor the Liberals strongly, with 51 percent expressing intention to vote for Carney, juxtaposed against 32 percent for the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the situation is tighter in Quebec, where Carney’s liberals stand with 40 percent support, the Bloc with 24 percent, and Poilievre’s conservatives at 23 percent.
Leger’s poll also highlights Ontario’s competitive battleground, where the Liberals hold 44 percent compared to 42 percent for the Conservatives, illustrating the tight race as each party vies for key seats. Further west, the Liberals find themselves underperforming, especially against the Conservatives, who report higher support levels across Alberta and the prairies.
Interestingly enough, demographic data reveals significant shifts, particularly among the younger voters who were once leaning heavily toward the Conservatives. Previously, polls indicated 47 percent of 18 to 34-year-olds slated to vote Conservative, but this gap has now closed with both major parties at 38 percent support. This number reflects changing priorities and sentiments among young Canadians and the mounting challenges they face.
Despite this, the Conservative Party retains its traditional stronghold among the 35 to 54 age group, leading with 43 percent against the Liberals at 37 percent. Notably, the oldest demographic, 55 and older, sees 49 percent supporting the Liberals.
The NDP’s support continues to erode dramatically across all age groups, collapsing down to just 11 percent among the youngest voters—down from 23 percent—indicating trouble for Singh’s party as it grapples with its identity and voter outreach capabilities.
“It’s the collapse in the NDP really… and for potentially various reasons, the Liberals seem to be the spot where much of the vote has shifted,” Enns noted, summarizing the key transitions shaping the Canadian political narrative as the country approaches the polls.
This national poll, conducted by Leger, surveyed 1,568 Canadians and is weighted to represent the population's demographics accurately. The margin of error for the poll stands at plus or minus 2.47 percent, ensuring the data reflects true electoral sentiments as the countdown to the election intensifies.
