OTTAWA — As the federal election campaign heats up, a new Léger poll reveals that the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, is holding a steady lead over the Conservative Party, headed by Pierre Poilievre. With 44% of Canadians indicating they would vote for the Liberals if the election were held today, compared to 38% for the Conservatives, the political landscape remains competitive.
The survey, conducted between March 26 and 31, 2025, indicates that two-thirds of Canadians (64%) have already made up their minds about their voting intentions, while one-third (33%) are still open to changing their votes. Interestingly, Conservative voters are more likely to state their choice is final, with 73% expressing certainty. In contrast, one-third of Liberal supporters and over half of NDP voters (57%) indicate they might switch their allegiance before election day on April 28.
Despite the current polling numbers, many Canadians believe that neither Carney nor Poilievre are particularly in touch with the average voter. Both leaders scored an average of 5.9 out of 10 when asked about their connection to the typical Canadian. Moreover, nearly half of respondents (48%) feel that Carney is not similar to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, while 48% believe that Poilievre resembles former U.S. President Donald Trump.
According to the poll results, 46% of Canadians believe the Liberal Party will win the upcoming election, while 31% think the Conservatives will emerge victorious. This perception of the Liberals as the likely winners appears to be bolstered by the fact that 36% of respondents believe Carney is running the best campaign so far, compared to 28% for Poilievre.
However, Canadians are divided on Carney's proposed carbon pricing plan. While 32% believe it will be better and more affordable than the current carbon tax, 27% think it will be worse and less affordable. A significant portion of respondents (41%) are unsure about how the plan would affect them as consumers.
In Quebec, the Liberals enjoy a commanding lead, with 43% support compared to 23% for both the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois. Despite Carney's perceived struggles with the French language and criticism for not participating in a French-language debate organized by TVA news, 52% of Quebec respondents still believe he is the best choice to lead the government.
Moreover, a substantial 67% of Canadians feel that Carney should voluntarily disclose his business interests before the election. Carney has faced scrutiny for not revealing the assets he placed in a blind trust and potential conflicts of interest stemming from his previous work in the private sector. He has argued that he has met legal requirements by establishing the blind trust and filing his disclosure with the ethics commissioner after becoming Liberal leader.
Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Léger, noted that Carney's reluctance to disclose his business interests may not resonate well with voters. “The Conservatives would look at this data point and say, hey, we’re on the right track,” he remarked. “But it doesn’t appear to be landing with voters.”
Despite the ongoing campaign, concerns surrounding U.S. President Trump’s influence on Canadian politics remain high. Voters are not as focused on the comparisons between Carney and Trudeau, nor Poilievre and Trump, as political strategists might hope. Enns pointed out that while the Conservatives have attempted to draw parallels between Carney and Trudeau, the messaging may not be capturing voters’ attention.
In fact, nearly half of respondents (48%) believe that Poilievre resembles Trump, while 35% disagree. This connection could be problematic for the Conservatives, especially given the current political climate where being associated with Trump could be viewed unfavorably.
The poll also shows the New Democratic Party (NDP) struggling, with only 7% support. The NDP's leader, Jagmeet Singh, faces an uphill battle as more than half of his supporters (57%) say they may change their minds before election day. Enns emphasized that Singh needs to significantly increase his party's standing in the polls to remain competitive.
As the election approaches, the political landscape remains fluid, with Canadians closely watching the campaigns of Carney and Poilievre. With significant portions of the electorate still undecided, the coming weeks will be crucial for both parties as they seek to solidify their support.
The Léger poll was conducted with a representative sample of 3,002 Canadian adults aged 18 and older. While margins of error cannot be applied to non-probability samples, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 1.79%, 19 times out of 20.
