Canada's federal election held on April 28, 2025, has resulted in the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Mark Carney, forming a minority government. This marks the fourth consecutive term for the Liberals, but it is Carney's first as leader following his victory in the leadership race on March 9, 2025. The election was closely watched, especially given the recent political climate influenced by international tensions, including the return of Donald Trump to the White House and his aggressive stance towards Canada.
Canada is divided into 343 ridings, an increase from 338 in 2021, due to the Commission des délimitations des circonscriptions redrawing electoral maps every decade. The last changes were implemented in 2022, based on the 2021 census. Quebec maintains its 78 ridings, while three of the five new ridings are located in Alberta.
To form a majority government, a party needs at least 172 seats in Ottawa. Before the election, the House of Commons included 152 members from the Liberal Party, 120 from the Conservative Party of Canada (PCC), 33 from the Bloc Québécois, 24 from the New Democratic Party (NDP), three independents, and two from the Green Party, with four seats vacant.
Polling leading up to the election indicated a competitive race. A Léger-Le Journal poll published on April 26, 2025, showed the Liberals with 43% of voting intentions, while the Conservatives trailed closely at 39%. The NDP and Bloc Québécois were at 8% and 6%, respectively. This election saw a significant increase in advance voting, with 7.3 million Canadians participating during the Easter long weekend—25% more than the 5.8 million who voted in advance in the 2021 election. As of November 2024, there were 28.9 million registered voters in Canada.
Polling stations in Quebec remained open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m., except in the Îles-de-la-Madeleine, with the first results expected about 30 minutes after the closing of the polls.
In a notable turn of events, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, was defeated in his own riding of Carleton. He congratulated Carney on his "very short victory" while addressing supporters in Ottawa, stating he would continue as the leader of his movement. His Liberal opponent, Bruce Fanjoy, led with 42,374 votes, or 50.6% of the total, leaving Poilievre trailing by approximately 3,793 votes, with a participation rate of 79.1%. As of early morning on April 29, 2025, only two out of 266 polling station boxes had yet to be counted.
Poilievre, who has represented Carleton since 2004, acknowledged the challenges ahead for the Conservative Party, which, despite losing the election, is projected to gain about thirty seats compared to the 2021 elections. He remarked, "It would be a great honor for me to continue to fight for you," signaling his commitment to his supporters despite the electoral setback.
The election results reflect a complex political landscape, with the Conservative Party poised to increase its representation even as the Liberals secure the government. Carney's warning during his victory speech emphasized the importance of remembering the "American betrayal," a reference to the strained relations with the U.S. under Trump's administration.
As Canada moves forward with its new government, the implications of these election results will undoubtedly shape the nation's policies and international relations. The dynamics of a minority government will require collaboration and negotiation among the various parties represented in the House of Commons, particularly as the Liberals navigate the challenges posed by their political rivals and the pressing issues facing Canadians.
