Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party, is facing a pivotal moment in his political career as he awaits the verdict from his second trial concerning alleged violations of the Public Official Election Act. This decision, expected on March 26, 2025, could significantly influence his eligibility for future electoral candidacies, particularly with upcoming presidential elections looming.
Lee Jae-myung has been accused of making false statements related to the late Kim Moon-ki and issues surrounding the rezoning of Baekhyeon-dong during the campaign for the 2021 Democratic Party presidential nomination. In a previous ruling in November 2024, he was handed a one-year prison sentence, suspended for two years, but now faces the possibility of harsher penalties as prosecutors push for a two-year prison term in the current appellate proceeding.
In this complex legal scenario, the court has taken a keen interest in the statements Lee made regarding his awareness of Kim Moon-ki while serving as the mayor of Seongnam, where he reportedly played golf with him during a trip. This contradiction led to Lee facing charges that he misled voters by denying their association.
Lee's final statements during the proceedings emphasized his perspective on the charges, asserting, "The prosecution is excessively interpreting what a politician can say." He defended himself against allegations, questioning the validity of claims that he would knowingly provide false information to the public.
The stakes are high for Lee: if the appellate court rules against him, and he receives a fine of more than 1 million won, he faces not only losing his parliamentary seat but also a ban from running in elections for five years. Conversely, a ruling in his favor or a lighter penalty, such as a fine under 1 million won, would allow him to maintain his candidacy for the presidency.
Political analyst Park Sang-byung remarked, "If he is declared innocent at the second trial, it would represent a significant relief for his political career." This scenario would strengthen his position within the Democratic Party and potentially pivot the party toward favorable standing in the run-up to the elections.
On March 25, 2025, Lee attended a public trial regarding other allegations tied to the Daejangdong development, where he continued to argue against what he describes as targeted investigations politically motivated by the government. His statement reflected concerns about the broader implications for democracy and public trust, indicating, "If the leading opposition party is burdened with fabricated evidence and unfair investigations, the public sentiment toward governance could shift dramatically."
The upcoming verdict plays into a significant timeline dictated by the Constitutional Court's decision regarding President Yoon Seok-yeol's impeachment. Political experts suggest that if Yoon's impeachment is upheld, a presidential election will be required within a defined period, potentially under less than ideal circumstances for Lee if he is simultaneously navigating legal turmoil.
As it stands, the court system follows a 6-3-3 timetable which may allow the Supreme Court to finalize its decision regarding Lee by the end of June 2025, just as the nation prepares for what could be a highly contentious presidential election season. The implication of any delay or unfavorable outcome for Lee could radically shift the dynamic within the Democratic Party, impacting the 2025 elections significantly.
Lee faces three distinct scenarios following the upcoming decision: a finding of not guilty, a fine below 1 million won, or a fine exceeding this threshold leading to disqualification. Each outcome represents dramatically different trajectories not just for Lee, but for the Democratic Party's viability in future political contests.
If Lee is found guilty of charges leading to a disqualification, analysts believe this could prompt internal dissent within the party ranks, especially with potential candidates like Kim Kyung-soo and Kim Boo-kyum positioning themselves as viable alternatives during an already tumultuous political climate.
Moreover, the Democratic Party's strategic plans hinge on resolving the questions surrounding Lee's eligibility amidst public sentiment towards the ruling party. The leadership within the party struggles with balancing both support for Lee’s candidacy and addressing the growing apprehensions regarding his legal challenges.
The verdict scheduled for March 26 will not only chart Lee's immediate path but will ripple throughout the political landscape, marking a crucial juncture as South Korea heads further into electoral proceedings amidst societal challenges and evolving political alliances.
