Lebanon stands at a crossroads, caught between the sweeping changes prompted by Israel's lethal strike against Hezbollah's leadership and the turbulent backdrop of war. Following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's chief, on October 20, 2024, observers believe this incident marks the end of an era for the militant group deeply rooted within the Lebanese political fabric.
Hezbollah, aligned with Iranian interests, has been pivotal in shaping the region's power dynamics. Its military actions and political stances have long drawn ire from Israel and other Western nations. The recent escalation of military aggression between Israel and Hezbollah has reignited decades of animosity, leading to widespread destruction and displacement within Lebanon.
With Hezbollah’s reputation now severely shaken by the loss of its iconic leader, the group faces unprecedented challenges. Experts suggest the assassination may undermine its influence and military operations across Lebanon and the broader Middle East. The dissolution of Hezbollah’s leadership structure adds layers of uncertainty to the group's future, prompting questions about whether it can maintain its stranglehold over southern Lebanon.
Underpinning the turmoil is the role of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Established after the 2006 Lebanon War, UNIFIL's mission is to monitor the cease-fire and prevent Hezbollah from stockpiling weapons. Yet critics argue the force has largely failed its mandate. An IDF spokesperson claimed the UN mission has been negligent, allowing Hezbollah to fortify its military capabilities along the southern border.
Recent reports indicate Hezbollah has been constructing extensive tunnel networks underneath civilian areas, including the village of Rab El Thalathine, which stand perilously close to Israeli territories. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) uncovered this compound and its weapon caches, laying bare the group's militaristic tendencies and Iranian backing. Observers noted it poses significant risks not only to Israel but to Lebanese civilians caught in the conflict’s crossfire.
Riyad al-Masri, a local resident, reflected on the rising tensions, saying, “My family left the village weeks ago because we fear for our lives. I am struggling to find food and safety.” Local officials report significant emigration from areas heavily impacted by military conflict, disrupting communities and families.
Commercial establishments are also feeling the effects. For example, the Palmyra Hotel, which has withstood many historical crises, now rests deserted as war ravages Lebanon's economic fabric. Longtime employee Rabih Salika poignantly stated, “I refuse to abandon this place. It has been my home for my entire life. But I fear it may not survive this.” City shops are operating intermittently, often shuttering due to nearby bombings.
The increased military operations have forced many businesses to close, with Baalbek's marketplace now almost barren of customers. Mayor Mustafa al-Shall noted, “Only about 40 percent of Baalbek’s residents remain. Life as we knew it has come to a halt.”
Despite the cultural and historical significance of places like Baalbek, the 2024 conflict has thrust the ancient city and its exceptional ruins back under the weight of fear and despair. Efforts to maintain the region's rich cultural heritage have been put on hold, with UNESCO reportedly monitoring how the conflict may impact its World Heritage Site status.
Further complications arise from the growing political divisions within Lebanon. Various factions within the government are divided on how to handle Hezbollah's influence as they cope with the repercussions of its actions. UNIFIL has faced mounting criticism for its inability to prevent Hezbollah from growing its military strength, leading to claims of ineffectiveness.
Scholars and analysts, including Edy Cohen, caution against underestimations of Hezbollah amid this turmoil. “Hezbollah continues to pose formidable threats,” they argue, “and its resilience is likely more substantial than expected.” Meanwhile, Walid Phares, another expert on Middle East affairs, contends, “UNIFIL has become complacent. Its presence has not diminished Hezbollah's control or aggressiveness.”
The sentiment on the ground mirrors their warnings. Residents express frustration and abandonment by international agencies, noting how local lives could be sacrificed due to political negligence and the failure of peacekeeping efforts.
