BAKU (Nov 11): The annual UN climate summit kicked off on Monday amid notable absences of prominent leaders, just as delegates gathered for serious discussions about financing and trade. This year's meeting follows unprecedented weather disasters globally, pushing developing nations to demand significantly higher financial support. Delegates hope to hammer out the summit's primary agenda item—a deal to secure up to $1 trillion annually for climate finance aimed at developing nations, which vastly surpasses the previous target of $100 billion.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell emphasized the importance of this new finance goal, stating, "Let’s dispense with the idea of climate finance as charity. An ambitious new climate finance goal is entirely in the self-interest of every nation, including the largest and wealthiest." Interestingly, this financing ambition is facing stiff competition for attention from various economic issues, geopolitical tensions such as the wars occurring in Ukraine and Gaza, and the looming shadow of Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency of the United States, whose past terms have been marked by climate skepticism and withdrawal from international climate agreements.
Political leaders missing from this year's summit include US President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, which has historically relied heavily on oil and gas revenues—accounting for 35% of its economy this year—faces mounting pressure to deliver on last year’s pledges made at COP28 to shift away from fossil fuels. This revenue is projected to drop to 22% by 2028, indicating the government's push to diversify its energy sources and meet climate commitments.
One of the first significant decisions made at the summit was to accept China's last-minute proposal to address trade concerns. The Chinese delegation, representing the BASIC group including Brazil, India, and South Africa, urged discussions on “restrictive trade measures,” especially concerning the European Union’s upcoming carbon border tariffs set to take effect by 2026. This request, observers note, coincides with Trump’s campaign promises to impose hefty tariffs on imports—20% on all foreign goods and up to 60% on Chinese products.
Li Shuo, director of the Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, remarked on the significance of China’s request, indicating it reflects the country's growing influence on the global climate stage following electoral developments. "Trump's election could heighten tensions as countries assess their trade strategies against the backdrop of changing U.S. policies on climate," he said. Trump himself has controversially referred to climate change as a hoax and hinted he would withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement again, similar to his first administration's actions.
Despite these concerns, the Biden administration’s legacy still finds some footing at COP29, having initiated a groundbreaking climate finance agreement with the Asian Development Bank. This agreement was presented as signal to the world of the U.S.'s continuing commitment to climate action, even as uncertainty looms with the prospect of Trump's policies. Michai Robertson, finance negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, expressed his alarm about the future direction of climate action if more nations shift to conservative, right-leaning governments: "The ball is back in the court of the developed countries and their populations: you all need to get your act together, or we... will suffer because of your negligence,” he said.
The backdrop of COP29 is especially concerning, as 2023 is projected to be one of the hottest years recorded, characterized by extreme weather disrupting lives across rich and developing nations alike. From devastating floods in parts of Africa and coastal Spain to prolonged droughts impacting North America and South America, the planet is delivering its stark warnings. Kaveh Guilanpour, vice president for International Strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, conveyed the urgency felt by many at the summit: "Unless the world collectively steps up its efforts, the impacts of climate change will become increasingly severe and frequent and will be felt by an increasing number of people, including those living in the United States."
The stakes are palpably high this week as leaders grapple not only with the practicalities of financing and framework discussions on carbon trading and emissions reduction but with the looming anxiety over the future of global climate collaboration. Many attendees expressed fears the potential disengagement of the U.S. could single-handedly undermine broader climate commitments, with one former EU climate ambassador stating, "If the U.S.—known as the second-largest emitter and the world's foremost economy—does not set ambitious targets, why would any other country feel pressured to do so?"
Azerbaijan's government has been proactive, showcasing its commitment to cleaner energy transitions and highlighting its fossil fuel resources as bridging solutions. President Ilham Aliyev has reframed these resources as "gifts of God," positing ideas such as creating a Climate Finance Action Fund, where up to $1 billion could be gathered voluntarily by extracting companies across ten nations, including Azerbaijan itself. Notably, Azerbaijan's gas exports anticipated for this year exceed 12 billion cubic meters, following last year’s close figure of 11.8 billion, as Europe seeks to diminish dependency on Russian gas.
Azerbaijan’s governmental policies, especially concerning political dissent, have come under scrutiny. Reports of jailing political dissidents—including journalists and ethnic Armenians, whom the government categorizes as separatists—have led to criticism from several international bodies. President Aliyev has dismissed these completions, describing them as threats to peace negotiations with Armenia and reinforcing the need for stability during the climate summit.
