With the 2024 election behind us, the Latino vote has emerged as one of the most intriguing stories, showcasing dramatic shifts which have caught the eyes of political experts and commentators alike. Historically seen as key Democratic constituents, Latino voters have increasingly made headlines for their growing support for Republican candidates, particularly President-elect Donald Trump. Understanding this trend requires peeling back layers of complexity and examining various factors influencing voter behavior.
According to recent exit polling, Trump garnered 46% of the Latino vote this election, marking the highest percentage for any Republican candidate since President George W. Bush's time. This figure not only shows an improvement from Trump’s previous 32% support in the 2020 election but also surpasses his 28% backing during the 2016 race. Many analysts attribute this shift to issues like inflation and the economy, common concerns across the electorate. Sergio González, a history professor at Marquette University, noted, "It’s impossible to not recognize the fact there were some pretty dramatic shifts among Latino voters." He emphasized the necessity to view the Latino community through the lens of its diversity rather than as a monolithic entity.
The diversity among Latino voters significantly stems from their varied national backgrounds, generational differences, and personal experiences with immigration. For example, some Latino voters prioritize economic issues over immigration reform. González hinted at the misconception surrounding support for candidates with restrictive immigration policies, stating, "Latinos have different things on their plates when they're going to the voting booth. And perhaps immigration is not the number one priority." He believes this demographic's political identity is shaped by multiple overlapping factors, including religious beliefs.
Interestingly, the polling from this election indicates notable support for Trump from Christian Latino voters; around 58% of Latino Catholics supported him, as opposed to his less favorable numbers among voters who do not identify as Christian. Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, leader of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, attributed these trends to cultural issues like gender and family, indicating, “We perceive an intrusion from government...into both our faith and family apparatus.” Such sentiments contribute to the complexity of the Latino voting dynamic.
Beyond national perspectives, regional variations also play pivotal roles. Colorado has seen noteworthy developments as the state’s demographic shifts lead to Latino Republicans securing unprecedented victories. The state, home to over 22% Hispanic or Latino residents, witnessed Ryan Gonzalez, Carlos Barron, and U.S. Representative Gabe Evans, among others, winning key positions. These candidates highlight the trend of moving away from the stereotype of the overly traditional base of the party. Tyler Sandburg, a Republican strategist, remarked on this transformation, noting, “For so long, Colorado Republicans ran one kind of candidate.” Sandburg’s hope is for Republicans to cultivate genuine relationships with Hispanic communities throughout the state.
Despite the Republican victories, polls still reveal deep-rooted preferences among Latino voters leaning Democrat. A recent exit poll articulated this, indicating 67% of Colorado's Latino population still favored Kamala Harris and 63% supported Democratic Congressional candidates. Most analysts caution against construing the rightward turn of Latino voters as definitive. Sandburg asserted the necessity for sustained outreach to keep these connections strong, advising against seeing success as guaranteed from one election alone.
Historical comparisons serve as useful perspective pieces as well. Republican support for Latinos peaked with George W. Bush, whose compassionate immigration policies garnered him 44% of the Latino vote in 2004. Following Bush, support waned significantly, with candidates like Mitt Romney earning only 27% of the vote. This pattern highlights the importance of specific campaign messages and outreach strategies when tackling Latino political support.
It’s important to recognize how various Latino demographics are reshaping their political identities. According to González, younger Latino voters—many of whom have only recently become U.S. citizens—bring different experiences to the ballot box. He adds, “Latino voters are from different cohorts, with varying relationships to immigration.” They also include growing numbers of individuals from Puerto Rican and Venezuelan backgrounds, representing their unique concerns and issues.
Nowhere are these generational differences more prominent than among Latino men, who were pivotal to Trump’s success this past election. National trends reveal those men swung heavily toward the Republican Party: 55% of Latino men voted for Trump compared to just 36% three years prior. While Trump may have lost ground with Latina voters, their support increased significantly—38% this election compared to 30% previously.
Oscar Hiciano, hailing from Independence, Missouri, is among those who changed his voting allegiance. Previously aligned with the Democratic Party, he cites economic security and immigration as major factors contributing to his vote for Trump this year. Reflecting on his evolution, he stated, “There’s not one thing they run on this campaign” from Democrats he resonates with.
