The Polish presidential elections are heating up, with recent polling data from Centrum Badania Opinii Społecznej (CBOS) indicating significant trends just three months before the elections. According to the latest survey, 71% of those eligible to vote express their intention to participate, showing strong engagement among the electorate.
Leading the pack is Rafał Trzaskowski, candidate of the Civic Coalition, with 34% of respondents indicating they plan to vote for him. Close behind is Karol Nawrocki, supported by the Law and Justice party (PiS), who has 25% support. Following them is Sławomir Mentzen from the Confederation, whose support stands at 17%. These candidates are establishing themselves as the main contenders as the electoral season intensifies.
The survey, conducted from February 17 to 20 with 1002 participants, used computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) for 90% of the responses and online interviews (CAWI) for the remaining 10%. It suggests significant voter loyalty, particularly among supporters of Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, with 94% of Trzaskowski's supporters expressing certainty about their choice, and 93% of Nawrocki's voters similarly committed.
Other candidates lag significantly behind. Szymon Hołownia from the Third Way party garnered 5% support, Grzegorz Braun and Krzysztof Stanowski each received 3%, and Magdalena Biejat from the New Left and Adrian Zandberg from the Left both received 2%. Marek Jakubiak from the Free Republicans secured 1%, with several other candidates polling below 0.5%.
Interestingly, 7% of participants are undecided about whom to vote for, indicating potential volatility as the election date approaches. The first round of elections is scheduled for May 18, 2025, with the potential second round on June 1, 2025. Candidates must register and submit at least 100,000 signatures to be eligible for the election, with the deadline for committee formation set for March 24.
Polling data from United Surveys, presented by Wirtualna Polska, echoes the findings of CBOS. Here, Trzaskowski leads with 34.1% of the vote, followed by Nawrocki at 25.7%, and Mentzen at 16.2%. These results suggest stability among the top candidates but highlight the significant challenge for others trying to break through.
This political climate has seen shifting dynamics, particularly with Mentzen's increasing visibility among voters. Political analysts note the appeal of younger, dynamic figures like Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, as older candidates struggle to gain traction with today’s electorate.
Recent trends show the PiS party faces challenges as it tries to maintain its previous electoral stronghold, especially with PiS supporters demonstrating slightly lower enthusiasm for their candidate compared to the other major candidates. Nawrocki himself has felt the pressure, as previous polling showed him closer to Trzaskowski, but he now finds himself trailing by significant margins.
"On the one hand, we have Trzaskowski with his established base, and on the other, Nawrocki's challenge will be to energize his supporters, especially with concerns about his overall campaign effectiveness moving forward," commented one political risk analyst.
Also noteworthy is the observed growth for Mentzen, who has improved his polling numbers. His campaign appears to have gathered steam recently, pushing him closer to Nawrocki and indicating potential for growth as more voters seek alternatives to the dominant parties.
Election observers, including experts from various political think tanks, suggest the current voter turnout probability indicates high engagement levels. With 71% of voters indicating their readiness to vote, this could lead to considerable shifts as competing campaigns work to sway undecided voters.
Voter engagement and turnout are pivotal components of the upcoming elections. Polls show considerable support for major candidates, but lower numbers for others demonstrate how important every vote will be. Those supporting the candidates are echoing similar sentiments on platforms and rallies as we inch closer to May 2025.
Regardless of the outcomes suggested by current polls, pivotal moments will likely influence the final vote counts. Campaign strategies are expected to intensify as these candidates prepare for a challenging race. The stakes remain high as parties strategize ways to boost voter engagement and secure their bases.
The upcoming election outcome will not only shape the political environment of Poland but will also reflect the broader sentiments of voters as they navigate these changes. With three months till voting day, each candidate must connect intensively with their electorate to secure their place and bolster their chances for victory.