The La Niña phenomenon has officially ended, transitioning into a neutral phase that will significantly impact Mexico's climate from May to October 2025. This shift is expected to bring about changes in weather patterns, including a more stable rainy season and a reduced intensity of heat waves.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system means that neither La Niña nor its counterpart, El Niño, will influence the climate. This absence typically leads to a less extreme climate, which could be a welcome change for many regions in Mexico.
Experts predict that the rainy season, which officially begins on May 15, 2025, will be normal, particularly benefiting the southern, central, and southeastern parts of the country. The Secretariat of the Navy estimates that approximately 36 tropical cyclones will form between May and November 2025. This is a slight increase compared to last year, as the absence of La Niña generally allows for a more consistent rainy season.
Interestingly, there is a 38% chance that La Niña could re-emerge between November 2025 and January 2026. This potential return could reshape the climate dynamics once again, leading to more unpredictable weather patterns.
As for temperatures, the forecast suggests that extreme heat waves may not be as severe as those experienced in 2024, but residents should still prepare for a longer heat wave towards the end of May. The first two weeks of the month may also bring the last cold fronts of the season, with between two to four systems expected to affect the northern regions of Mexico.
While the neutral phase of ENSO does not directly favor or inhibit hurricane formation, meteorologists warn that the unpredictability of weather patterns may lead to alternating weeks of heavy rain followed by dry spells. This variability is something that farmers and water resource managers will need to monitor closely.
"The absence of La Niña suggests a shift towards a more stable climate, which is beneficial for agriculture and water supply," said a NOAA representative. This stability could help mitigate the severe weather events that have characterized recent years.
As the rainy season approaches, the NOAA plans to release updated forecasts on May 8, 2025, which will provide further insights into the evolution of the ENSO phenomenon. Until then, the focus will be on preparing for the official start of the rainy season and monitoring the arrival of tropical waves.
In summary, the transition away from La Niña is expected to bring a more moderate climate to Mexico in 2025. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the upcoming hurricane season, the overall outlook points to a less extreme weather pattern that could benefit various sectors, particularly agriculture.
As the world grapples with climate change, such fluctuations in weather patterns are becoming increasingly common. The neutral phase of ENSO may provide a temporary reprieve from extreme weather, but experts caution that the long-term effects of global warming continue to loom large.
