On March 16, 2025, the GII Kinko Sho, taking place at Chukyo Racecourse over 2000 meters of turf, has become one of the focal points for thoroughbred racing enthusiasts. This race showcases not only local talent but also serves as a preliminary event for prominent upcoming races such as the G1 Osaka Hai and the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup.
For the past eight years, the Kinko Sho has yielded notable results, particularly for the favorite contender. More impressively, the number one favorite horse has achieved five wins, alongside two second-place finishes and one third. Despite its predictability, the race is notorious for surprises, as evidenced by the unexpected victory of 10th favorite Gibbon back in 2021, which sent shockwaves through betting parlors by producing payouts exceeding 780,000 yen for trifecta bets.
Looking at this year’s race, expectations are high for several strong contenders, including the seven-year-old Prognozis, who aims for his third consecutive win. Following him, strong horses like the five-year-old Ho’Oh Biscuit and six-year-old Desierto are also drawing attention due to their impressive capabilities. Yet, racing analyst Hideki Ohno emphasizes the potential for dark horses to make their mark this year, noting, "There are some horses who might not appear strong at first glance but could surprise us."
This year, Ravel, 5 years old, stands out as one of those potential dark horses. She initially made headlines by winning her debut races, including the GIII Artemis Stakes, where she famously outperformed the eventual Triple Crown winner Liberty Island. Though she has struggled since, finishing fourth at the G1 Oaks as the 10th favorite, her untapped potential remains. Ohno remarks, “If she can relax and focus, there's no telling what she might achieve.”
Another memorable competitor is Desierto, who took the lead right away, clocking 58.2 seconds for the first 1000 meters. Familiar to fans as she harkens back to memories of the great Silence Suzuka, who famously used similar tactics to secure his 1998 win, Desierto, unfortunately, fell short, finishing fourth after exerting too much energy too soon. Jockey Yutaka Take reflected post-race, stating, "I thought I could get her to relax, but it became quite difficult on this tough course."
King’s Palace, having finished third, also impressed with his performance, especially as he managed to put together his long strides effectively from the back of the pack, thanks to the blinkers assistance, as noted by Jockey Yuichi Fukunaga. Similarly, Deep Monster claimed fifth place, expressing satisfaction with how well he managed to position himself during the race.
This year’s Kinko Sho promises drama and excitement, especially around the impact of the track conditions. Analysts note the previous trend of Kansai horses, which have dominated since the race’s rescheduling to March—and opened eligibility to horses aged 4 and older—producing only Kansai winners over the last eight years. Despite representing various regions, horses from the Kanto area have struggled to compete effectively, as seen by the notable shortcomings of favorite Kanto horse, Durezza, who finished second but recently disappointed fans last year.
Another intriguing angle of the race is how the selection of posts could influence outcomes. While the past decade has shown no significant bias toward inside or outside posts, the second and sixth slots often resulted poorly. Notably, neither has seen success with just three horses making it to the ticket range during this period.
Analyzing this year’s competition, experts recommend keeping a watchful eye on leading horses based on past records. The race tends to favor front-runners, having witnessed them reaching the ticket zone six times out of the last ten events even when unexpected occurrences shake the outcome.
For bettors and spectators alike, the allure of the Kinko Sho remains potent, with surprises always around the corner. Whether it’s the performance of dark horses like Ravel or the pressure on favorites such as Prognozis to retain their title, the outcome remains unpredictable, promising yet another thrilling chapter to Japan's storied horse racing history.