On February 28, 2025, the Los Angeles Kings will take on the Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center, marking the third and final meeting between these two competitive teams this season. Both clubs are engaged in fierce competition as they vie for playoff positioning, making this game particularly significant down the stretch of the NHL season.
The matchup follows previous encounters, with the Kings winning the last two games against the Stars. They first triumphed with a dramatic 5-4 shootout victory on February 7 and earlier secured another win with a tight 3-2 finish against Dallas back in December. With the Kings currently sporting a 12-14-5 record on the road, they look to improve their performance away from home, whereas the Stars boast an impressive 20-7-1 record on their ice.
The Kings are eager to capitalize on their recent success against the Stars, hoping to complete the season sweep. Coach Todd McLellan has focused on ensuring his team plays quality hockey for the full 60 minutes, as they have struggled at times with consistency. A recent 3-2 overtime loss to the Vancouver Canucks highlighted these issues.
The good news for Kings fans is the expected return of star defenseman Drew Doughty, who missed the last game with injury but should bolster the Kings' defensive lineup. Alongside him, newly adjusted forward lines feature Kevin Fiala, Quinton Byfield, and Adrian Kempe, who will look to generate offensive opportunities against Dallas.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars are coming off their own recent defeat, losing 6-4 to the Columbus Blue Jackets, which puts added pressure on them to deliver a strong performance at home. Despite missing key players like Miro Heiskanen and Tyler Seguin, who are noted for their significant contributions to the team, the Stars have managed to remain competitive. Their record without Heiskanen stands at 5-2-1, though they face challenges when it involves 5-on-5 play without him.
Statistical analysis shows the Stars have struggled defensively at 5-on-5 without Heiskanen, allowing 3.48 goals per 60 minutes. Conversely, the Kings' road defense has been solid, permitting the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.13) at 5-on-5. This presents the Stars with challenges they must overcome if they hope to secure victory against Los Angeles.
The game predictions are leaning toward the Los Angeles Kings as underdogs, with betting models assigning them approximately 45% chance of winning based on data and simulations performed. According to Mac Douglass from Dimers, the Kings have shown substantial defensive prowess. "Employing the latest data, our experts simulated Friday's Los Angeles-Dallas game 10,000 times," said Douglass, who indicates the Stars hold about a 55% chance of winning.
Upcoming statistical trends show the Kings have hit the game total Under 25 times out of their last 45 away games, indicating their conservative offensive game style on the road. With the over/under set at 5.5 goals, analysts believe both teams will be driven to keep it tight, especially with the stakes as high as they are.
One notable key player to watch for the Kings is Kevin Fiala, who has demonstrated scoring capabilities and is anticipated to lead their offense against the Stars. Over the past week, he recorded three or more shots on goal consistently, which could indicate his importance tonight.
The Kings will need to maintain pressure early to avoid falling behind, which has been their downfall against both the Golden Knights and Canucks. If they can capitalize on their scoring opportunities and play disciplined hockey, they may overpower the Stars and end February on a high note.
Fans can catch the action live via Victory+ and various radio stations, as the game is set to begin at 8 PM ET. With the end of the month upon us, the intensity of this matchup only escalates, making it must-watch hockey for fans and analysts alike.