Kenya and the United States are once again stepping into the international spotlight, as both nations prepare to launch negotiations for a new trade agreement. This development comes at a critical juncture, with the widely impactful African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) set to expire on September 30, 2025, casting uncertainty over the future of duty-free trade between African countries and the American market. The stakes could hardly be higher for Kenya, which counts on billions in export revenues from the US market—revenues that hang in the balance as the expiration date looms ever closer.
On May 23, 2024, President William Ruto of Kenya met with former US President Joe Biden in the Oval Office at the White House, a moment that underscored the importance both countries place on their economic relationship. However, as the political winds have shifted in Washington, so too has the approach to trade talks. The Strategic Investment and Trade Partnership (STIP), a framework negotiated for more than two years during Biden’s tenure, never reached a final agreement before his departure. Now, with the Trump administration back at the helm, the focus has pivoted: the US appears to be shelving the STIP in favor of a new, reciprocal trade agreement with Kenya.
The urgency of this pivot was crystallized during a recent four-day visit to Washington by Kenya’s top trade official, Trade, Industry and Investment Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui. Wrapping up his visit in the week of August 18–22, 2025, Kinyanjui left with a renewed promise to restart bilateral trade talks—talks that trace their origins back to the first Trump administration. According to The Africa Report, this commitment was made with the recognition that AGOA’s renewal is far from guaranteed, a reality that has injected a sense of urgency into the proceedings.
"Kenya is deeply interested in the commencement of formal negotiations with the US government. A reciprocal trade agreement is crucial for securing long-term access to the US market for Kenyan products and will provide the stability needed to unlock new investments," Kinyanjui said in a statement released on Wednesday, August 20, 2025. His comments echoed the concerns of many in Kenya’s export sector, who worry that the expiration of AGOA could leave them scrambling for alternatives—or worse, shut out of the lucrative American market altogether.
During his Washington visit, Kinyanjui met with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The Kenyan Ministry of Trade described the meeting as a "significant step towards a reciprocal trade pact between Kenya and the US," highlighting both sides’ willingness to move forward, even if the path ahead remains somewhat uncertain. According to The Standard, Greer hinted that the US would be pursuing the Trump administration’s "America First" strategy in its approach to negotiations—a stance that could shape the contours of any eventual agreement.
The context for these talks is anything but simple. AGOA, which has been in place since 2000, has allowed certain goods from African countries to enter the US duty-free, providing a vital boost to exporters across the continent. For Kenya, AGOA has been a lifeline, supporting industries from textiles to agriculture and helping create thousands of jobs. But as the September 30 expiration date approaches, anxiety is mounting over whether the US will renew the act—or allow it to lapse, fundamentally reshaping the trade landscape.
The uncertainty has led both governments to reassess their priorities. The STIP, which had been the centerpiece of trade discussions under Biden, is now being set aside in favor of a more direct, reciprocal arrangement. As reported by The Standard, the Trump administration appears uninterested in concluding the STIP negotiations, instead favoring a new framework that aligns with its broader trade philosophy.
"A number of US firms have expressed strong interest in establishing or expanding their operations in Kenya and this framework will be a key enabler for that growth," Kinyanjui noted, signaling that the stakes aren’t just high for Kenyan exporters. American businesses, too, are eyeing opportunities in Kenya’s growing market—a market that could become even more attractive if a stable, long-term trade agreement is put in place.
But what might a new reciprocal trade agreement actually look like? While details remain under wraps, the "America First" approach championed by the Trump administration suggests that the US will seek terms that maximize its own interests—potentially demanding more stringent requirements or greater market access in exchange for continued preferential treatment. For Kenya, the challenge will be to secure the stability and predictability its exporters need, without sacrificing too much in the negotiations.
Both sides appear aware of the delicate balancing act ahead. The Kenyan Ministry of Trade’s statement emphasized the importance of stability and long-term access, while Greer’s comments hinted at a more transactional approach from the US. The question on everyone’s mind is whether these competing priorities can be reconciled in time to prevent a disruption to trade.
Meanwhile, Kenyan officials are working to reassure stakeholders at home. The government has been clear that it sees the new trade talks as essential for protecting the country’s economic interests, especially as AGOA’s future hangs in the balance. "This framework will be a key enabler for growth," Kinyanjui reiterated, underscoring the potential for new investments and expanded business ties if a deal can be reached.
For US companies, the prospect of a new trade agreement with Kenya is equally enticing. Kenya’s strategic location, growing consumer base, and role as a gateway to the wider East African region make it a natural partner for American firms seeking to expand their footprint on the continent. According to The Standard, several US businesses have already expressed interest in deepening their engagement with Kenya—a trend that could accelerate if a stable, predictable trade regime is put in place.
All eyes are now on the negotiators as they prepare to hammer out the details of a new agreement. With AGOA’s expiration date fast approaching, the pressure is on to deliver a deal that secures Kenya’s access to the US market while also satisfying the Trump administration’s policy objectives. The outcome of these talks will have far-reaching implications—not just for Kenya and the US, but for the broader trajectory of US-Africa trade relations in the years to come.
As the clock ticks down to September 30, the world will be watching to see whether Kenya and the US can chart a new course—one that preserves the benefits of open trade while adapting to the shifting priorities of both nations. For now, the only certainty is that the coming months will be pivotal for both countries’ economic futures.