The excitement is building as the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby approaches, scheduled for around 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3, 2025. However, the weather forecast is casting a shadow over the festivities, with rain and thunderstorms anticipated throughout the week leading up to the event.
Churchill Downs in Louisville is the center of attention this week, hosting a series of events including Thurby on Thursday and the Kentucky Oaks race on Friday. The Derby is renowned for its pageantry and tradition, but this year's weather could play a significant role in how the race unfolds.
As of Thursday, May 1, 2025, the forecast indicates a high likelihood of showers and thunderstorms, with some storms potentially bringing strong winds, hail, and heavy rain. Meteorologists are warning that these conditions could impact the Derby festivities, with rain expected to linger into Saturday.
Earlier in the week, forecasts suggested that any rain would clear Louisville by Derby day, but recent updates indicate a shift towards a wetter outlook. Steady rain is predicted for the morning hours, followed by scattered showers throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Although the rain is not expected to be heavy, it could be enough to dampen the track conditions, which has been a concern for horse trainers and jockeys alike.
"If you're headed to the race, bring rain gear, in case showers move through," advises Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com. The last time the track was deemed "sloppy" due to rain was in 2019, when approximately a third of an inch fell. In contrast, in 2018, over three inches of rain drenched the track on Derby day, leading to challenging conditions for the horses.
This year, temperatures on Derby day are expected to be in the 60s, providing a cooler environment for both spectators and horses. The fluctuating weather patterns have raised questions about how the conditions will affect the horses' performance.
"Weather can significantly impact a horse's performance, especially if the track is muddy or wet," said a local trainer, who wished to remain anonymous. "We always hope for the best conditions, but we have to be prepared for anything."
In the days leading up to the Derby, the Great Steamboat Race is also set to take place on Wednesday, April 30, 2025. While the weather is expected to be warm, with temperatures reaching 80 degrees, a tornado watch has been issued for far northwestern communities, including Jackson County and Lawrence County, until 11:00 p.m. on the same day. This adds another layer of complexity to the already busy Derby week.
As the weather continues to evolve, both fans and participants are advised to stay updated on the latest forecasts. On Thursday, May 1, scattered storms are likely throughout the day, with temperatures starting in the upper 60s and warming into the lower 80s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a slight risk for severe weather, which could lead to further interruptions during the festivities.
Friday, May 2, marks the Kentucky Oaks, where the excitement continues but rain chances persist. While forecasters do not expect a complete washout, a few showers and storms may linger, adding uncertainty to the day’s events.
Despite the rain, the Derby remains a highlight of the horse racing calendar, drawing spectators from across the country. The atmosphere at Churchill Downs is electric, with fans donning their finest attire and hats, eagerly anticipating the spectacle of the race.
As Derby day approaches, the anticipation builds not only for the race itself but also for the surrounding events and traditions. The Kentucky Derby is not just a race; it’s a celebration of culture, heritage, and community.
While the weather may present challenges, the spirit of the Derby is resilient. Fans are encouraged to embrace the unpredictability of the weather, much like the race itself, where anything can happen in the final moments.
In the end, the Kentucky Derby is about more than just the horses; it's about the experience, the camaraderie, and the shared love of the sport. As the clock ticks down to the race, all eyes will be on Churchill Downs, hoping for clear skies and thrilling competition.
So, whether you’re at the track or watching from home, prepare for an unforgettable Derby experience—rain or shine!
