Ken Paxton, the embattled Texas Attorney General and Republican Senate hopeful, finds himself at the center of a political storm as his personal and professional controversies collide just months before the 2026 Senate race. His wife of 39 years, Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in July 2025 on "Biblical grounds," citing his years-long infidelity, a scandal that has rocked Texas politics and added fuel to an already heated campaign.
Paxton’s troubles are hardly new. The attorney general admitted to an affair with Laura Olson as early as 2018, but it wasn’t until this summer that the split with his wife became public. On social media, Paxton framed the divorce as a consequence of "countless political attacks and public scrutiny," asking for prayers and privacy while proclaiming his commitment to his family. Yet, the timing and nature of the revelation have only intensified scrutiny of the controversial figure.
Paxton’s political record is marked by a relentless crusade against LGBTQ+ rights, making him a polarizing figure even within his own party. Just this month, he sued an adult swimming organization that permitted transgender women to compete in a Texas event. Earlier, in March 2025, he banned transgender Texans from changing the sex listed on their driver’s licenses and birth certificates, demanding that previous changes be reversed as "unlawful."
His legal battles stretch back years. In June 2024, Paxton sued the Biden administration over Medicaid coverage for gender-affirming care. In February 2024, he demanded documents from PFLAG related to families seeking such care for transgender youth in Texas. In 2022, he declared gender-affirming care child abuse and supported Governor Greg Abbott’s investigations into parents of transgender children.
Paxton’s opposition to LGBTQ+ rights dates even further back. In 2015, he called the landmark Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Court ruling—which legalized same-sex marriage nationwide—a "lawless ruling," instructing Texas clerks to ignore the mandate. In 2003, he signed an amicus brief supporting Texas’s sodomy ban, arguing it was necessary to protect "public health" and discourage sexual activity outside marriage.
Despite these controversies, Paxton is currently polling higher than incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, a fact that has surprised many political observers. Cornyn, considered more moderate, faces criticism from the right for not being conservative enough, while Paxton’s platform aggressively champions conservative causes. His campaign website pledges to "stand with President Trump to protect our gun rights, defend the unborn, and defeat the radical transgender movement that’s desperate to put men in girls’ sports and woke indoctrination in our classrooms."
But the divorce scandal has complicated Paxton’s bid. Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, publicly condemned his actions on July 10, 2025, calling them "truly repulsive and disgusting" and expressing support for Angela Paxton. This rare rebuke from a Republican establishment group signals potential fractures within the party’s base ahead of the primary.
Meanwhile, Democrats see an opening in Texas’s traditionally red Senate race. Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully challenged Senator Ted Cruz in 2024, has already entered the 2026 Senate race. Beto O’Rourke, who came close to flipping Texas in 2018, has hinted at another campaign, and state Representative James Talarico is gaining momentum with large crowds and a growing profile.
Political science professor Dr. Matthew Wilson of Southern Methodist University notes that a "well-funded Democratic candidate will have more than a fighting chance" to seize the seat, especially given Paxton’s damaged reputation. Wilson highlights that Democratic turnout in the 2026 midterms is expected to be "white-hot" due to outrage over former President Donald Trump, while Republican turnout may lag without Trump on the ballot.
To win the Democratic nomination, candidates must display "feistiness and combativeness" to energize the primary electorate, Wilson says. However, in the general election, candidates will need to balance passion with composure to appeal to a still-Republican-leaning state. James Talarico, with his "wholesome, clean appearance and approach," is seen as a frontrunner, having already reserved the domain talaricoforsenate.com and generating buzz with a "launching soon" announcement.
Another Democratic contender, Dallas Representative Jasmine Crockett, is currently the most popular choice among Democratic voters, according to recent polls. Known for her unapologetic opposition to Republican policies, Crockett represents a more polarizing figure who could energize the base but might also deepen divisions in the general election.
Joel Montfort, a Dallas-based Democratic activist, emphasizes that Democrats must "take the gloves off and get serious," warning that passive campaigns will fail. He critiques Colin Allred’s previous campaign for relying too much on traditional TV ads rather than grassroots efforts and praises Talarico’s momentum and ability to draw large crowds.
Montfort believes Talarico’s Christian faith and background as a teacher help him build bipartisan support, offering a stark contrast to Paxton’s scandal-ridden image. He points out that about 11% of Texans identify as independent voters, many of whom may prioritize integrity and lean toward Talarico.
Dallas State Senator Nathan Johnson recently announced his candidacy for Attorney General in 2026, aiming to replace Paxton. Johnson, who defeated a Democrat before in 2018, believes a change is "due" in the AG’s office and expects to benefit from increased Democratic turnout fueled by anger toward the current president.
However, the Republican edge remains formidable. The outcome of the 2026 elections may hinge largely on whether the "Trump coalition" can be mobilized without Trump himself on the ballot. Wilson notes that Trump’s unique ability to activate low-propensity voters was key to his victories, but replicating that success in midterms is uncertain.
Trump has yet to endorse either Paxton or Cornyn, despite a positive relationship with Paxton, whose campaign website prominently features a photo of the two. Republicans face a dilemma: while Trump favors Paxton, many in Congress prefer Cornyn’s more moderate style, complicating the party’s unity.
Despite his scandals, Paxton has shown political resilience, winning statewide elections even after impeachment and ethical controversies. "Ken Paxton is not Donald Trump," Wilson cautions, noting that attempts to mimic Trump’s playbook have often failed elsewhere. Yet, Paxton’s ability to withstand political storms makes the 2026 Senate race unpredictable.
Breaking Texas’s Republican stronghold will require more than scandals or viral moments. It demands a strategic, energized campaign that can harness Democratic enthusiasm while appealing to independents and moderate Republicans. As the race unfolds, all eyes will be on Texas, a state that might just be on the cusp of political transformation.
