Kemi Badenoch has made quite the splash since stepping up as the leader of the Conservative Party, recently closing the polling gap behind the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer. A recent Techne UK poll for The Independent shows her efforts have yielded early results: the Conservatives are now at 25 percent, just four points behind Labour's 29 percent.
The boost for Badenoch couldn't come at a more timely moment. Her entrance as leader has coincided with growing dissatisfaction among voters toward Starmer's government, particularly following controversial £40 billion tax increases outlined in the most recent budget.
Many voters are unhappy about tax rises such as those on farm inheritances and increased national insurance contributions. It's no wonder the Labour Party is seeing some slippage. Badenoch’s response to this political environment has been sharp and astute, as she quickly focused her attacks on Starmer during her first Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs), where she tackled him on past criticisms of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Though she began her leadership taxing the waters, her initial performance was strong, earning praise from both party members and commentators alike. Critics noted, though, she wasn't without her missteps, having previously made social media jokes about rape—comments from her past have resurfaced and garnered scrutiny as her media presence intensifies.
On the opposite side, the poll also revealed disappointing news for Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, which remains stagnant at 18 percent support, and is actually down from 20 percent, leaving them unable to capitalize on recent events such as Trump's return to power. On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats fell by one point to 13 percent following party leader Ed Davey's failed attempt to leverage Trump's election victory against Labour. The Green Party remains at 7 percent, reflecting minimal movement across the board when it came to party support.
To add to things, another poll of 1,632 voters from Wednesday and Thursday painted Ciudad de la Luz’s challenges vividly. It indicates no easy path forward; Labour continues to assert strong leads among voters under 45, whilst the Tories are finding their strongest support among older generations, particularly those aged 55 to 64. Here, the Conservatives lead by four points.
Badenoch's emergence as Tory leader came after Rishi Sunak, her predecessor, failed to galvanize public support, and underlines the precarious position any Conservative leader faces as party favorability wanes. For her part, Badenoch has been proactive, establishing herself not only as the first Black woman to lead the Conservative Party but also as one well-versed on economic concerns, likely aiming to bridge gaps with traditional Tory bases.
It appears most concerningly, around 25 percent of the parties’ supporters have distanced themselves from Labour and the Conservatives since July of this year—all sounding alarm bells within Conservative ranks.
While Badenoch can boast of some early victories, confidence in the government itself continues to see declines. It has dropped by one point to 31 percent,” indicating more obstacles lay firmly on her path to revitalizing her party's fortunes.
Despite the Conservative Party still being viewed unfavorably by well over half of the electorate, Badenoch has made strides early on—showing she might just have the backbone to steer her party toward regaining voter confidence, albeit with the uphill battle very visible in current stats.
Badenoch was unanimously elected on November 2, 2024, yet her approval ratings present yet another challenge. A recent YouGov survey revealed two-thirds of voters described her performance unfavorably, giving her only 24 percent favorable reviews. This net approval rating derives simply from perceptions of not just her policies, but also public discourses surrounding past missteps. Disturbingly, her standing is worse than her predecessors, like Liz Truss, who appeared to do slightly more on favorable ratings.
Interestingly, though, her approval rankings depict less satisfaction with prominent political figures surrounding her. Keir Starmer finds himself at even larger disapproval numbers—him at minus 33%, vs Badenoch at minus 20%. Overall, this battleground of public sentiment ties directly back to the key frustrations voters feel toward their elected officials and party politics.
With elections looming on the horizon, the question continues to linger: Can Kemi Badenoch bolster the Conservative Party or will the winds of change sweep Labour back to the forefront as they navigate their own management on pressing national issues like tax hikes and crisis management?
Her leadership’s ability to pivot away from unfavorable perceptions hinges greatly on her policy effectiveness over the coming months as her tenure commences. The clock's ticking, and political survival always finds its way back to public opinion. Kemi Badenoch knows this well, and as the nation watches, she faces the moment of whether her rise signals the lessons learned will transform the party or if they remain entrenched deep within perilous territories.
