The currency exchange rates for the tenge against the US dollar and other currencies have been influenced significantly by various economic factors as February 2025 draws to a close. The situation surrounding Kazakhstan's national currency, the tenge, is characterized by turbulence and dependency on both local and international economic conditions.
According to reports from ArbatMedia, the exchange rate of the dollar to the tenge continues to be heavily influenced by oil prices, the National Bank's policies, and the unexpected strengthening of the Russian ruble. Specifically, by February 21, 2025, the ruble had reached 88.67 rubles per dollar, marking a 6% increase over five days, which is notable as it directly impacts the tenge.
The current price of Brent crude oil is fluctuated between $70 and $75 per barrel, instilling temporary stability for the tenge. Nevertheless, consequences of rising oil production indicate price expectations could dip to $60 per barrel by 2026, which suggests potential vulnerabilities for the tenge moving forward.
At present, inflation rates within Kazakhstan exceed those of both the US and Russia, thereby applying additional pressure on the national currency. The policies instituted by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, including adjustments to the base interest rate, have had some success maintaining the tenge's value, but external pressures from US Federal Reserve actions strengthen the dollar, creating added strain.
Adding to the complexity of the currency environment, the perception of geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to notable fluctuations. Sports.kz reports insights from financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov, detailing how the dollar is continuing to decline, affected by global monetary policy shifts, particularly from the Federal Reserve, which shows signs of potentially easing rigorous monetary policies soon.
TV analysts assert the current economic climate suggests the tenge is remaining relatively stable, linked tightly with the fluctuational trends of the ruble. Rysmambetov notes, “The volume of cash money circulating within Kazakhstan grew by 20% over the past year.” This startling growth reflects increasing consumer concerns over inflation and declining purchasing power.
The prevailing sentiments around currency management suggest diversification might be prudent, as Rysmambetov advises keeping tenge for daily expenditures, but maintaining savings predominantly in dollars, euros, or even Chinese yuan to mitigate risk exposure.
On February 21, the average dollar exchange rate during trading sessions showed the dollar at 502.47 tenge—an increase of 2.53 tenge compared to previous weeks. Accordingly, exchange offices were trading dollars between 503.1 and 506.5 tenge. The euro and ruble also saw corresponding increases, with the euro being traded for 527 to 532 tenge, demonstrating overall upward tendencies across the currency spectrum.
The recent impact of geopolitical events, particularly the dialogue surrounding the Ukraine crisis, has resulted in ruble appreciation, which indirectly reinforces tenge stability. The upcoming taxation week set for February 25 has experts anticipating potential fluctuations, predicting the tenge could strengthen temporarily to between 485-490 per dollar as fiscal movements proceed.
Despite this, analysts express cautious optimism, maintaining awareness of the longer-term challenges posed by volatile oil prices and potential governmental policy adjustments affecting national expenditures, which could strain the tenge again in the future. The delicate balance of income, investment, and expenditure policies all remain under sharp scrutiny by both economic policymakers and the public.
Now with currency markets on constant alert, forward-thinking individuals contemplating investment or savings strategies might find it beneficial to keep abreast of the shifting landscapes, encouraging inquiry between foreign currency instruments and traditional tenge holdings.
Forecasting the tenge for 2025, it appears likely to endure pressures from declining oil prices alongside fluctuational inflationary trends, notwithstanding any short-term support it may receive from ruble dynamics or easing global dollar valuations. Rysmambetov succinctly remarked, “The decisions surrounding your financial holdings are yours; remain vigilant and informed.”