Kazakhstan is gearing up to invest $500 million in the construction of a railway in Afghanistan, as announced by Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin during a meeting with Afghan Vice Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar in Kabul on April 21, 2025. This significant investment marks a pivotal step in strengthening economic ties between the two nations, aiming to enhance infrastructure and trade.
As part of the initiative, a logistics and transport company is set to be established in Herat, which will play a crucial role in promoting the railway project. Zhumangarin expressed Kazakhstan's readiness to assist Afghanistan in expanding its internet connectivity, offering affordable internet services to the Afghan population. Furthermore, Kazakh companies are eager to explore investment opportunities across various sectors of the Afghan economy, particularly in oil and gas.
During the meeting, Zhumangarin emphasized that Kazakhstan is prepared to issue visas to local businessmen, initiate air services between the two countries, and foster banking cooperation. The objective is to expand transit and trade, while also collaborating on projects related to healthcare and education. Zhumangarin's visit to Kabul coincides with the Kazakh-Afghan business forum scheduled for April 22, where these initiatives are expected to be further discussed.
In a previous announcement made in November 2024, Zhumangarin revealed that the first trial payment of $10,000 had been successfully conducted between the Kazakh Zaman-Bank and the Afghan Ghazanfar, paving the way for direct financial transactions between the two countries. This development is particularly significant as prior transactions had relied on intermediaries from Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Gulf countries.
Both nations aim to significantly increase their trade volume to $3 billion, with Kazakhstan planning to export domestically produced cars and construction materials for railway projects to Afghanistan. Notably, at the end of 2023, Kazakhstan removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, a decision that may have facilitated this burgeoning partnership.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical landscape in Central Asia is shifting, particularly following the recent decision by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation to suspend the ban on the Taliban's activities. This ruling opens new avenues for Russia to engage in large-scale regional projects, such as the TAPI gas pipeline (Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India) and the Trans-Afghan Railway. With this legal barrier removed, Russia is poised to strengthen its position in Central Asia, where it competes with the United States, the European Union, China, Turkey, Iran, India, and Japan.
Zamir Kabulov, the special representative of the Russian President for Afghanistan, highlighted that the Supreme Court's ruling removes legal obstacles for full-fledged relations between Moscow and Kabul. He announced plans for a Russian-Afghan business forum set to take place in Kazan in mid-May, which will explore opportunities for economic cooperation.
Afghanistan's rich mineral resources and strategic geographical location could transform it into a vital transit hub between Russia, Central Asia, and South Asia. Experts are already discussing Afghanistan's potential involvement in infrastructure projects under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The successful implementation of these projects, alongside other multi-modal transport routes, would provide Russia and Central Asian countries access to maritime trade routes.
Future initiatives may include the construction of TAPI gas pipelines for the export of Turkmen gas, and potentially TAPI-2 for Russian gas. However, a critical factor in developing Afghanistan's infrastructure is the need for electrification. The country currently faces a severe electricity shortage, with some regions relying solely on generators or individual solar panels for power. Without a stable energy supply and an expanded railway network, economic growth and resource development in Afghanistan remain unattainable.
The CASA-1000 power transmission line project will require time to complete, as it hinges on the construction of the Kambaratin Hydropower Plant-1. In this context, the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TUTAP) power transmission project is becoming increasingly relevant, with Russia having considered participation back in 2018.
As for the situation of women in Afghanistan, experts argue that prioritizing economic development is essential for curbing conflicts, engaging men in the workforce, and providing educational opportunities for women and girls. It is crucial to note that Moscow's decision to lift the ban on the Taliban came later than similar moves by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, reflecting a cautious approach to engagement.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have not imposed sanctions on the Taliban, while Tajikistan remains the only Central Asian nation yet to lift its ban. Moscow's motivations align with those of Central Asian leaders: while the risks associated with the Taliban persist, the prospects for enhancing cooperation and influence over the current Afghan authorities outweigh these concerns.
In summary, the stability of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the political reliability of its government are paramount. Moscow plans to coordinate its efforts with Central Asian countries, which share similar interests in stability, security, and economic ties. This collaborative approach is expected to yield benefits for all parties involved: Russia, Central Asian nations, and Afghanistan.
While the recognition or non-recognition of the Taliban may have minimal impact on terrorism and extremist ideologies, the situation remains complex. For instance, in Dushanbe, the terrorist group Ansarullah, largely composed of Tajik citizens, poses a significant threat. Additionally, Afghan political scientist Fahim Kohdamani reported that an Afghan government delegation is planning a visit to Dushanbe to discuss the transfer of the Afghan embassy to Taliban representatives and conditions for electricity supply contracts from Tajikistan to Afghanistan.
