Karol Nawrocki Wins Narrow Polish Presidential Election

On June 2, 2025, Poland witnessed one of its closest and most fiercely contested presidential elections in recent history, culminating in a narrow victory for Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the Law and Justice party (PiS). After all votes were counted, including those from abroad and even from polling stations established on ships, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, edging out his rival Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by the Civic Coalition (KO), who garnered 49.11%. The State Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) confirmed these results after tallying votes from 100% of electoral commissions, marking the smallest margin of victory ever recorded in a Polish presidential election.

The official final count showed Nawrocki receiving 10,606,628 votes, while Trzaskowski collected 10,237,177 votes, a difference of just 369,451 ballots. This razor-thin gap followed an election night that saw fluctuating leads: initial exit polls at 9:00 PM on June 1 placed Trzaskowski slightly ahead with 50.3% against Nawrocki's 49.7%. However, late polls released after 11:00 PM and again past 1:00 AM signaled a reversal, with Nawrocki pulling ahead to 50.7% and then 51%, a lead that held firm as more votes were counted.

Voter turnout for the second round was notably high at 71.63%, reflecting the intense public interest and stakes involved. The election drew more than 20 million voters to the polls, underscoring the deeply divided political landscape in Poland. Among Poles voting abroad, Trzaskowski enjoyed a commanding lead, receiving 63.49% of the votes compared to Nawrocki's 36.51%, highlighting a geographic and demographic split in voter preferences.

Regionally, the electoral map painted a picture of contrasting political loyalties. Nawrocki dominated in eastern and southeastern voivodeships such as Podlaskie (61.39%), Lubelskie (66.54%), Podkarpackie (71.02%), as well as in Łódzkie (53.20%), Małopolskie (58.87%), and Świętokrzyskie (63.61%). Conversely, Trzaskowski triumphed in most western and northern regions, including Opolskie (52.98%), Śląskie (51.34%), Dolnośląskie (55.81%), Lubuskie (58.22%), Zachodniopomorskie (58.03%), Pomorskie (59.13%), Warmińsko-Mazurskie (51.71%), Kujawsko-Pomorskie (53.42%), Mazowieckie (50.28%), and Wielkopolskie (55.17%).

In urban centers, Trzaskowski secured majorities in nearly all provincial capitals, with notable strongholds such as Warsaw (68.21%), Gdańsk (70.03%), Poznań (72.73%), Wrocław (67.09%), and Szczecin (64.17%). The exception was Rzeszów, where Nawrocki narrowly prevailed with 51.66% of the vote. Other cities where Trzaskowski performed strongly include Olsztyn, Białystok, Toruń, Bydgoszcz, Zielona Góra, Gorzów Wielkopolski, Katowice, Kielce, Łódź, Kraków, and Lublin, reflecting his appeal in metropolitan and more liberal areas.

Following the announcement of the results, Rafał Trzaskowski took to Platform X (formerly Twitter) to address his supporters with an emotional message. He apologized for not being able to convince a majority of Poles to his vision of the country, stating, "I am sorry that we did not win together." He extended his gratitude to all who voted and fought for a Poland that is strong, safe, honest, empathetic, and modern, where everyone can pursue their goals and aspirations. Despite the loss, Trzaskowski congratulated Nawrocki on his victory, urging him to remember the responsibilities that come with such a tight electoral mandate.

Karol Nawrocki, current president of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), will take over the presidency amid high expectations and significant challenges. His political stance is characterized by conservative and nationalist policies, with skepticism toward the European Union and opposition to Ukraine's accelerated membership in NATO and the EU. Analysts note that Nawrocki's rhetoric sometimes echoes that of former U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly in his criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for allegedly underappreciating Poland's support during the ongoing conflict with Russia.

International reactions have been swift. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda congratulated Nawrocki, expressing hope for continued strategic partnership between Lithuania and Poland. Meanwhile, independent media outlets like Russia's Novaya Gazeta Europe commented that Nawrocki's victory signals a prolonged confrontation between Poland's liberal government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and a conservative president, potentially complicating domestic politics and foreign relations.

German newspapers, including the Süddeutsche Zeitung, viewed Nawrocki's narrow victory as a blow to Tusk's government, limiting its political maneuvering and raising concerns about renewed tensions between Warsaw and Berlin. The German press highlighted Nawrocki's win despite numerous scandals surrounding his campaign. In Poland, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, head of the Polish People's Party (PSL) and Minister of National Defense, also congratulated Nawrocki, emphasizing the need to rebuild national unity following the divisive election.

Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, speaking from Vilnius, underscored the significance of the election's high turnout and the fact that both candidates received over 10 million votes. He welcomed the support for Nawrocki and stressed the importance of strengthening Poland's ties with the United States, enhancing national security through military development, and ensuring balanced regional growth. Duda expressed his intention to meet with President-elect Nawrocki promptly after returning from Vilnius, signaling a desire for a smooth transition.

Media from Denmark and Sweden interpreted Poland's choice as aligning with the political style of Donald Trump, suggesting that Nawrocki could become a powerful ally of the former U.S. president within the European Union. The Swedish press agency TT noted that Poland, as the EU's fifth most populous country and a significant military power, could influence the future of Europe and Ukraine's support amid the ongoing war with Russia. TT also speculated that Nawrocki might resist further generous aid to Ukraine, akin to the stances of Hungary's Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico.

The election results also sparked political ripples within Poland. A press conference planned by Kosiniak-Kamysz was abruptly canceled after Nawrocki's victory became clear, indicating shifting political calculations. Commentators criticized Trzaskowski's campaign for failing to learn from past mistakes and for adopting rhetoric similar to the far right, which may have alienated some voters. The defeat has prompted introspection within the Civic Coalition, with voices calling for a reassessment of strategy and messaging.

As Poland prepares for the transition, the country faces the task of bridging deep political divides and navigating complex international challenges. Nawrocki's presidency is expected to shape Poland's domestic policies and foreign relations, particularly regarding the European Union, the United States, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The close election results reflect a nation at a crossroads, with a citizenry deeply engaged in its democratic process and eager to see how their new leader will steer the country forward.