JP Morgan has raised its target prices for Greek banks, despite adjusting its forecasts for the European Central Bank's (ECB) main interest rate downward, now expecting it to reach 1.5% by the end of 2025. The bank has noted a significant increase in loan volumes for Alpha Bank, which reflects a better-than-expected performance for the bank in 2024.
In its latest report, JP Morgan made slight adjustments to its balance sheet assessments and profit estimates for Alpha Bank, increasing its annual share repurchase estimates for 2025 and 2026 to €200 million. The improved forecasts indicate further increases in share profitability of +4%, +1%, and +3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.
Despite the declining interest rates, JP Morgan believes that Eurobank can maintain a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of 15% in 2027, with the target price for the share remaining unchanged at €3.20. The National Bank of Greece has also made adjustments to its balance sheet and profit guidance, considering the increase in loan volumes. JP Morgan confirmed that the bank is capable of maintaining a ROTE of 15% or 14% on a transactional basis, resulting in the target price for its shares being raised from €9.80 to €11.30.
JP Morgan's analysis indicates that the bank has recorded an increase in loan volume since February, reflecting strong performance for the bank in 2024. The forecast for the ECB's deposit facility interest rate is now expected to stabilize at 1.5% by the end of 2025, down from previous expectations of 1.75%.
In a separate report, the Egyptian Stock Exchange has seen significant trading activity, with the real estate sector leading the way. The sector topped the trading charts with a volume of 440.7 million shares, valued at 1.7 billion Egyptian pounds during the past week. The non-banking sector followed in second place, witnessing a trading volume of 661.5 million shares valued at 1.014 billion Egyptian pounds.
The food, beverage, and tobacco sector ranked third with a trading volume of 597.7 million shares valued at 856.6 million Egyptian pounds, while the healthcare and pharmaceutical sector came in fourth with a trading volume of 193.1 million shares valued at 504.1 million Egyptian pounds. The basic resources sector rounded out the top five with a trading volume of 27.2 million shares valued at 446.2 million Egyptian pounds.
Other sectors included telecommunications, media, and information technology, which achieved a trading volume of 241.5 million shares valued at 435.6 million Egyptian pounds, and the banks sector, which had a trading volume of 9.1 million shares valued at 400.5 million Egyptian pounds. The contracting and construction sector also performed well, with a trading volume of 254.2 million shares valued at 310.5 million Egyptian pounds.
The household products and durable goods sector achieved a trading volume of 39.9 million shares valued at 246.4 million Egyptian pounds, while the building materials sector had a trading volume of 51.1 million shares valued at 229.7 million Egyptian pounds. The leisure and standard services sector, along with the paper and packaging sectors, ranked last, with trading volumes of 1.7 million shares valued at 13.9 million Egyptian pounds and 6 million shares valued at 7.7 million Egyptian pounds, respectively.
The Egyptian Stock Exchange is regarded as a leading market in the region, attracting a diverse array of investors, including individuals, financial institutions, and investment funds. The leadership in the exchange is committed to facilitating support for industrial, commercial, and service entities, aiming for sustainable growth and diversification of available financing sources.
The recent developments in the stock market contribute to expanding the ownership base of companies, improving their performance, and enhancing transparency and governance. Additionally, the aim is to develop and modernize trading activities within the Egyptian Stock Exchange, which will help raise the actual capital available to investors.
Moreover, the Egyptian Stock Exchange is striving to enhance innovation and financial technology by providing advanced trading platforms. This enables investors to access information and data more quickly and accurately, thereby boosting investor confidence in the market and encouraging increased investments.
Recent stock market events from the last week of April included the general meeting of 17 companies. Interestingly, ten medium-sized companies controlled approximately 72% of the stock market trades during the past week. Stock market companies have distributed a total of 19.2 billion Egyptian pounds in cash dividends over the past 20 days.
In other news, Talaat Mustafa Group emerged as the most traded company on the stock exchange during the week, highlighting its strong market presence. The stock trading landscape also revealed movements involving former ministers transitioning between companies owned by business figures.
As of Saturday, April 26, 2025, the dollar price in commercial banks stood at 50.91 Egyptian pounds for purchase, reflecting ongoing fluctuations in the currency market. Furthermore, the precious metals sector has been closely monitored, particularly following a significant decline in gold prices. The price of gold in Saudi Arabia on the same day was reported at 2,988.25 riyals per ounce.
Overall, both the banking sector in Greece and the Egyptian Stock Exchange are witnessing dynamic shifts, with institutions adapting to changing economic conditions and investor sentiments.
